We’ve already addressed the various scenarios that would have to take place for the Alabama Crimson Tide to find themselves once again in the BCS National Championship game. But we wanted to take another look at it using an analogy that even Auburn Tigers fans can understand.
You know how when you buy a Powerball ticket, you make all the great plans of your beach house, your mountain house, your second beach house and your Ferrari? Right now, Alabama holds in its hand a Powerball ticket. Five numbers. One Powerball number. Let’s see how the lottery plays out:
If we get all five numbers and the Powerball:
Duke beats FSU and Michigan State beats Ohio State on Saturday. Auburn beats Mizzou in the SECCG. Iron Bowl II – for all the marbles. Neutral field rematch, a month to prepare. Hey, LSU, who do you think will have the advantage?
Reality – FSU will probably annihilate Duke. I still think Sparty tops OSU on Saturday, so there could still be a possibility, albeit remote, for Bama Nation.
If we get all five numbers but miss the Powerball:
- FSU thrashes Duke. Michigan State beats OSU. Mizzou wins an ugly game full of bad officiating, worse coaching and generally abysmal football play. The BCS voters – in particular the final Harris Poll – punish the game and keep Bama ahead of Mizzou and send them to play FSU in the title game. Outrage ensues, again.
- The Tallahassee police decide to become a key component in the BCS race, and FSU’s Heisman front-runner takes a seat. FSU loses, MSU wins, and Bama plays the winner of the SECCG, with a great big Colt McCoy-sized asterisk that says, “Yeah, but if Jameis Winston had played…”
Reality: No. 1 is more likely, just because it kinda seems like something the BCS would enjoy doing on its way out the door. No. 2 could happen, but it sounds like nothing will happen in Winstongate for a while.
If we get four numbers, but also nail the Powerball:
Duke and MSU win. Mizzou pounds Auburn. We get a shot at Mizzou in Pasadena. The downside – we’d have to listen to insufferable Auburn fans for … um … ever.
Reality: Seriously, Duke is going to be strung up and skinned by FSU.
We get three numbers, no Powerball:
FSU and Ohio State win and meet for the title, and Auburn beats Mizzou. We go to the Orange Bowl and play Clemson, and I get a month of Clemson fans trying to tell me about tradition. Sorry, Dabo. We love you, brother, but we’re going to have to take our frustrations on not winning the lottery out on you.
Reality – The most likely scenario. But we don’t buy lottery tickets for likely scenarios. We buy them for our beach houses. Go Duke, Go Sparty!