The Crimson Tide Peek: Kentucky Wildcats Edition
The Alabama Crimson Tide wraps up the back end of a two game home stand against the Kentucky Wildcats this Saturday.
ICYMI: Bama vs Kentucky: Notes, TV/Radio/Livestream Info
It’s finally starting to feel like football season in Tuscaloosa, AL. The fall equinox has brought with it semi-cool weather. It’s actually been pleasant to walk outside for the first time in months.
Also, Bryant-Denny is set to host the first SEC home game for the Crimson Tide this season. The campus is full of excitement about the game this weekend. Much more so than the previous two home opponents for the Crimson Tide – Western Kentucky and Kent State. However, that might have more to do with this week’s events rather than the Wildcats.
It happens to be Alabama’s homecoming weekend. Those who visit the Capstone this weekend will be treated to lawn decorations along Sorority Row, the annual homecoming parade, and all sorts of fan fare around the city.
The Kentucky Wildcats are an improved team. Especially since their 45-7 drubbing in The Swamp a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, the most exciting thing to take place in Bryant-Denny Stadium might be the announcement of the Homecoming Court during halftime.
Kentucky has played Alabama on the road 21 times. Alabama has shut out Kentucky 10 times in those 21 trips allowing just 4.57 points per game. Alabama has averaged 24.67 per game in those 21 meetings.
For those who don’t like math, that’s about a 20 point difference per game. The difference in talent level on the rosters should provide a similar spread this weekend.
Here is how Alabama and Kentucky will square off this weekend.
When Alabama is on Offense
I’m not going to waste my time this week and try to convince anyone that Kentucky has a good defense. The Wildcats are 109th in Total Defense. They surrender 463 yards and 35 points per game.
Those stats accumulated after playing a less than stellar group of offensive teams.
Kentucky plays a “multiple” defense. That basically means they just run a lot of different sets and don’t consider anything their base.
Their typical pattern is to go to a 5-2 front on standard downs, especially when the offense isn’t spread out. When teams go shotgun or spread they run a typical Nickel defense 4-2-5 look or a 3-3-5.
After being routed 45-7 in Gainesville, Head Coach Mark Stoops announced he would be involved more directly in the Kentucky defense. Since then the Wildcats defense has surrendered 42 points to New Mexico State but just 10 to South Carolina. South Carolina’s ranks 120th in total offense.
What we can gleam from Kentucky’s defense thus far in 2016 is that it’s a unit that has still failed to improve in 4 years with Stoops in charge. In Joker Phillips’ last season, Kentucky’s defense ranked 58th. Last season, they ranked 59th – a sizeable improvement from 77th the year before. However, as mentioned, they’ve regressed to 109 in 2016.
The one bright spot on defense for the Wildcats has been Jordan Jones at Will Linebacker. Jones leads the SEC in total tackles with 43. For comparison, Alabama’s leading tackler, Reuben Foster, has 29.
Jones is a guy who can play sideline to sideline at just 215 pounds. Alabama’s offensive line has to find a way to get a hat on him on running plays or he will blow it up.
Alabama should be able to do pretty much whatever it wants to on Saturday as long as they execute. The Crimson Tide are third in the SEC in total offense, averaging more than 483 yards per game. They are No. 1 in scoring offense, averaging nearly 47 points per game.
Offensive Coordinator Lane Kiffin will likely look to spread Kentucky’s defense out. This will force the Wildcats to keep big nose tackle Matt Elam (6’7″ 360 lbs) on the sideline. It will also allow Alabama’s running backs to get into one on one match-ups with linebackers and safeties – which are match-ups that favor the Tide.
One thing to watch is for is Alabama RB Damien Harris. The question is how much he will play after suffering an ankle sprain against Kent State last weekend. Harris is a former 5 star recruit from Kentucky. I doubt he’ll allow the training staff to not play in this game. He wants to make a statement against his home state University.
In the passing game Alabama will not try to win any jump balls – or at least they shouldn’t. Every secondary player (sans the Nickle) is at least 6 feet tall. The corners themselves, Westry and Baity, are 6-4, 6-3, respectively.
The Crimson Tide receivers should look to use their size against these guys are they don’t carry much weight at all (heaviest corner is 200 lbs). Look to see a bunch of slants, screens, and hooks.
Basically Alabama will look to use a pretty traditional attack. Run when the numbers favor it, throw short majority of the time, and take their shots once the safeties start creeping up.
Rinse and repeat.
When Alabama is on Defense:
The Crimson Tide defense had a very good recovery week following Ole Miss by posting a shutout against Kent State. Yes, it was against a weak opponent, but shut outs are very difficult at this level of football.
The Kentucky offense comes in limping to Tuscaloosa. The Wildcats lost Quarterback Drew Barker to injury after the Florida game. Stephen Johnson will be getting his 3rd straight start this weekend. It will be his biggest test by far.
Johnson had a really good day against NMSU putting up 310 yards in the air and throwing for 3 touchdowns. South Carolina made Johnson look a bit more mortal. The Gamecocks held Johnson to just 135 yards, no touchdowns, and picked him off once.
With all due respect to South Carolina’s defense – and it’s a decent unit – it isn’t Alabama’s Johnson will have to grow up in a big hurry to have a better day than he did last week.
Johnson will likely be under duress all day long. First, Alabama’s pass rush is very, very good. The sack numbers aren’t where most fans want them to be (still averaging roughly 3 sacks a game, however), but Alabama is one of the best in the country in terms of Quarterback pressures.
Also, the Kentucky offensive line has struggled mightily in terms of protecting their QB. Everyone on their schedule so far has employed delayed blitzes and pressures and the Wildcat line hasn’t done much to pick them up.
Defensive Coordinator Jeremy Pruitt will certainly dial up some delayed and ghost blitzes to help Alabama’s already stout pass rush.
The Kentucky offense has a bad mismatch coming into this game. Their strength is running the football -as passing the football isn’t much of an option. Their Running Back Stan “Boom” Williams is a road grader. He’s a bit undersized for a typical SEC RB, but has shown he can play at this level.
Unfortunately for Kentucky, the strength of the Alabama defense is stopping the run. Alabama will look to stop Williams from the outset and force Johnson to beat the Tide defense with his arm. It should be a pretty straight forward defensive game plan.
The player to watch for Kentucky’s offense is the Tight End C.J. Conrad. He’s a true Sophomore that has the makeup to be a future NFL TE. He’s 6’5″ and 245 lbs.
If Alabama can contain or shut down Conrad in the passing game Johnson essentially runs out of threats. Star receiver Dorian Baker has been hung up with an injury all season and likely won’t play much, if at all, Saturday.
The most important thing for Alabama is to not allow Johnson to use his legs. He’s not the best rushing QB Alabama has seen or will see, but he’s definitely serviceable as a dual threat QB. Alabama needs to keep Johnson in the pocket and force him to use his arm. Otherwise, Johnson can get this Wildcat team into enough 2nd and 3rd and short situations to give “Boom” Williams chances.
Prediction
On paper, Alabama should shut out this Kentucky team, but there is enough talent where I expect the Wildcats to get into the end zone once – even if its in garbage time.
Jalen Hurts is going to get a lot of reps this Saturday due to a lack of a certain QB and the fact it’s an SEC opponent. The Tide offense should get a lot of consistency from that and not have the hang ups that tend to come with planning to rotating QBs in and out.
Alabama’s hasn’t scored less than 38 points this season. It should score more than that against the Wildcat defense.
Biggest question about Alabama’s final square is whether the Crimson Tide will have yet another non-offensive score – which they’ve done in 6 straight games.
Score Prediction: Alabama – 41 Kentucky -10
Next: Alabama Homecoming Events Schedule
The game kicks off at 6pm at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. For those who can’t make it to the Capstone, the game will be broadcast live on ESPN. Roll Tide, and happy Homecoming!