Alabama Football: Will 2017 Be ‘Run-Daboll’ Or ‘Air-Daboll’ Or Something Else?

Alabama football fans hoping for ‘Run-Daboll’ may be surprised. ‘Air-Daboll’ is as likely to be Tide’s 2017 theme. Let’s look at Tide offensive stats from recent seasons for clues to the 2017 Alabama Offense.

Let’s think back to the mindset of the Crimson Nation on New Years Day 2017. Despite a less than stellar offensive performance in the CFB Playoff semi-final, Alabama football fans shared abundant optimism.

Twenty-five consecutive wins in FBS football is thrilling. It is also seductive.  The head knows it cannot go on forever. But the heart gets tricked, seduced by an unquenchable thirst for more. Throughout the Crimson Nation, there was little doubt the Tide was soon to cement its status as the greatest dynasty in college football history.

Nine days into 2017 and at the opponent’s last second, suddenly, it was gone. A moment passed, never to return in the same time and space.  For many of us, the depth of the void was visceral. In response, we hide behind temporary disinterest, turned to less psychologically risky diversions and tried our best to cope … waiting impatiently for the potential redemption of next season.

Before we ponder what lies beyond the current Crimson Tide crossroad, let’s consider what has happened over the past six seasons.

Alabama football is not staring into the abyss. Alabama football was one second and two yards short of claiming college football’s greatest dynasty status. Alabama football came up short. It is time to move on with whatever it takes to rectify or rebuild championship aspirations.

Most of the fan angst has focused on offensive woes. With three offensive coordinators in less than three months, much scrutiny is given what changes will be made by Brian Daboll. Will Alabama football return to more of a power run game? Can Daboll make Jalen Hurts a more efficient and more explosive passer?

Will the 2017 offense be ‘Run-Daboll’ or ‘Air-Daboll’ or ‘Whatever-Nick-Calls-Daboll’ – We don’t know. We will not learn much on April 22, either. Saban is not about to give Jimbo any clues during a spring game.

We can come to some conclusions prior to Sept 5. We have an abundance of information. We can analyze where the 2016 offense compared to the offenses from 2011-2015.

In the pages to follow we will do just that. We will compare the 2016 offense to 2015. We will also compare the 2016 offense to the three national championship seasons, 2015, 2012 and 2011.

Inside the numbers are clues to indicate the direction of the 2017 Saban-Daboll offense. We will offer conclusions as we move through the stat analysis and at the end, we’ll include our prediction of what to expect from the 2017 offense.

There are ten tables of stat data provided courtesy of rolltide.com. On mobile devices, viewing the tables may require rotating your screen.

Don’t miss the last page that explains what to expect from the 2017 Alabama football offense.

Scoring and First Downs – 2016 Compared to 2015

The 2016 Alabama football offense was more potent than 2015 in three of five scoring and first down categories.

Points Per Game Average and Total Points were up over ten percent. In 2016 much attention was given to the points, producing productivity of the Tide defense. Eleven non-offensive touchdowns were scored by the defense. Almost forgotten by fans is the fact the 2015 Tide scored 76 points off of opponent turnovers.

In 2016, Passing First Downs were down more than Rushing First Downs were up. Total First Downs were also less in 2016.

Conclusion No. 1

An offense that increases its points production, but gains fewer first downs is inconsistent with standard Saban design. Nick Saban wants to wear down defenses more than he wants to outscore other offenses.

Scoring and First Downs – 2016 Compared to National Championship Offenses – 2011, 2012, 2015

The trend of Points up and Rushing First Downs up continue in this comparison. The big difference in comparing 2016 to the national championship seasons is that Passing First Downs were down even more. The 2016 Passing First Downs were over 20 percent less than the Alabama football,  three championship season average.

Conclusion No. 2

The 2016 Offense was a more run-dependent offense than the 2015, 2012 and 2011 Alabama football offenses.

Conclusion No. 3

A closer balance between rushing and passing productivity contributed to national championship success.

Rushing Specific Stats – 2016 Compared to 2015

The 2016 increase in Rushing Total Yards, Yards Per Game and Average Yards-Per-Carry is significant. What is even more amazing is the big increases were accomplished without an increase in rushing plays. The number of 2016 rushing plays was almost identical to 2015.

An increase of more than a Yard-Per-Carry in 2016 shows the running game was more productive than 2015. Even without Heisman-winning, Derrick Henry, these numbers suggest fans demanding “Run the Damn Ball, Lane” were correct.

Rushing Specific Stats – 2016 Compared to National Championship Offenses in 2011, 2012 and 2015

Two numbers stand out in the 2016 comparison to the Alabama football national championship seasons.The yards lost due to tackles for a loss and sacks was much higher in 2016. Fans can remember plays when Jalen Hurts failed to throw the ball away before giving up a sack. By comparison, A.J. McCarron learned the Saban lesson of minimizing negative plays.

The other big difference in 2016 was the number of rushing attempts, 639 in 2016, compared to the national championship seasons average of 557 rushing attempts.

The 2016 offense was more dependent on rushing but more productive with an average of 5.8 yards-per-carry compared to 5.2 yards-per-carry. These stats favor the opinion that more running was warranted in 2016.

Passing Specific Stats – 2016 Compared to 2015

All of the 2016 passing totals are less than 2015, except for total touchdowns by passing. Jalen Hurts’ inconsistency with downfield passing was a major 2016 offensive weakness. The Completion Percentage and Average Yards Per Game were down in 2016.

The Completion rate and the Average Yards Per Attempt indicate the Tide passing attack while diminished, was not down drastically in 2016.

Passing Specific Stats – 2016 Compared to National Championship Offenses in 2011, 2012 and 2015

Similar to the above stats, the 2016 season comparison to the Alabama football national championship seasons, document diminished success through the air.

The most noticeable difference in the two passing tables is seen in Average Yards Per Attempt and Average Yards Per Game. These stats show the national championship seasons were more effective in gaining yards and those yards were accomplished with a little more downfield passing.

Total Offense Stats – 2016 Compared to 2015

These stats show when rushing and passing outputs are combined, the 2016 offense was more productive and more efficient than the 2015 offense.

The 2016 offense exceeded the 2015 offense in four categories, despite running fewer plays. The Total Plays count was only down a small amount in 2016. Both Average Yards Per Play and Average Yards Per Game were up by good margins.

Compared to 2015, the 2016 Total Offense was more productive at producing yards and touchdowns.

Total Offense Stats – 2016 Compared to National Championship Offenses in 2011, 2012 and 2015

Looking at the Total Offense Stats for 2016 compared to the Alabama football national championship seasons, we can see the evolution of the no-huddle, sometimes hurry-up style of Lane Kiffin.

The Total Plays number for 2016 was much higher than the average of the national championship seasons.

With the additional plays run in 2016, it is easy to see the big increase in Total Yards. The Average Yards Per Play are almost identical. Actually, 2016 is down slightly from 6.6 yards to 6.5 yards.

The Average Yards Per Game are virtually identical comparing 2016 with the national championship seasons.

Conclusion No. 4

The 2016 total offense output was as productive as the total offensive output of the national championship seasons. Does that beg the question, why no 2016 national championship?

Key Additional Stats – 2016 Compared to 2015

Moving through this stat analysis, the question in the back of all our minds is what does this data tell us about the failure to win a 2016 national championship. Analyzing full season stats and applying any drawn conclusions to a single-game scenario is not worthwhile.

Gauging why Alabama football failed to beat Clemson should be restricted to the actual championship game stats.

In our full-season analysis, we have seen 2016 passing was a bit sub-par to Alabama’s national championship standards. We have also seen the 2016 rushing was a bit better than Alabama football national championship standards.

Through this analysis, we have learned Total Offense in 2016 met Alabama national championship standards. But we also know that in several key game situations in 2016, the Tide offense struggled to perform. The miscellaneous stats below may provide some answers.

Two stats almost leap off the page (screen), Third Down Conversions and Time of Possession. The deviation is so significant it requires little elaboration. In 2016, the offense was poor in third down conversions and therefore did not maintain possession as effectively as the 2015 offense.

Let’s see if these deficiencies are as glaring in comparison to the three national champion seasons.

Key Additional Stats – 2016 Compared to National Championship Teams in 2011, 2012 and 2015

When comparing 2016 to the three national championship seasons, we see Third Down Conversions and Time of Possession are down to a similar degree.

The other stat that pops up when measuring 2016 against the three national championship seasons is the increased number of sacks. The increase was not big, only 2.4 more sacks above the national championship average.

But burrowing into the actual stats a bit deeper, the 25 Sacks in 2015 drove the three-season national championship average higher. In 2012 and 2011, the sack numbers were only 23 and 17.

Conclusion No. 5

Alabama was good at generating yards and points in 2016. It was not good enough in Third-Down Conversions and Time of Possession.

Now that we have exhaustively reviewed offensive stats from four of the last six Alabama football seasons, what have we learned?

Will the 2017 offense be the  ‘Run-Daboll’ or ‘Air-Daboll’ or ‘Whatever-Nick-Calls-Daboll’ offense?

Let’s review our  five previous conclusions:

1. An offense that increases its points production, but gains fewer first downs is inconsistent with standard Saban design. Nick Saban wants to wear down defenses more than he wants to outscore other offenses.

2. The 2016 Offense was a more run-dependent offense than the 2015, 2012 and 2011 Alabama football offenses.

3. A closer balance between rushing and passing productivity contributed to national championship success.

4. The 2016 total offense output was as productive as the total offensive output of the national championship seasons. Does that beg the question, why no 2016 national championship?

5. Alabama was good at generating yards and points in 2016. It was not good enough in Third-Down Conversions and Time of Possession.

Let’s look at one more table. It shows to what extent the 2016, 2015, 2012 and 2011 offenses were balanced between rushing yards and passing yards.

Our guess is the evident trend toward less balanced offenses is what most concerns Nick Saban. In 2017 Saban wants an offense that better performs on third down and an offense that more often dominates time of possession.

We can be sure that Nick Saban wants an offensive scheme that chews up enough clock the other team cannot run 99 plays.

The 2017 Alabama football offense could achieve those goals by being ‘Run-Daboll’ or being ‘Air-Daboll’. Our guess is the most accurate moniker for the 2017 Alabama football offense is ‘Balance-Daboll’ and our stats review indicates that could lead to another national championship.

Next: See Who Will Fill Big Shoes in 2017 D-Line

If you reviewed the stat tables and came up with different conclusions, let us know by commenting on our Facebook page. Check in with us often during the Spring practice season.