Alabama Football: How well does the ESPN FPI predict game outcomes?

Alabama football fans cannot avoid some exposure to the ESPN FPI. What is it? And how well does it predict game outcomes?

Alabama football fans are pretty much required to love ESPN. The Disney-owned giant brings us the SEC Network and lots of football games. In the opening two weeks of the 2017 season alone, the Disney sports family will broadcast six games with SEC teams.

A few weeks ago, after the ESPN purge of 100 employees, we commented on the importance of perceived value exchanged between consumers and producers of sports/entertainment product.

Let’s take a close look at one of ESPN’s ‘added value’ products, branded the Football Power Index or FPI. ESPN is zealous with spin and the FPI is cited ad nauseam. We have no heartburn with the proliferation of data popularized by Moneyball. We also respect Nate Silver as a statistician and pollster.

To be clear we have no problem with Alabama football being No. 2  or No. 3 or even lower in the FPI. The reason for our ‘whatever’ attitude about the FPI is because it is very poor at predicting future outcomes.

The FPI is reactive, not predictive. After half the season gives an adequate sample of game results, the FPI can make a worthwhile argument how teams should be ranked. But that is not enough ‘juice’ for ESPN. Rather, ESPN wants to take that data and predict outcomes.

Let’s look at two examples. In 2015, the FPI predicted among the four CFB playoff teams, Oklahoma had the highest probability of becoming the national champion.  ESPN rated OU at 39 percent and Clemson at 17 percent to win it all. Clemson rolled over Oklahoma in the semi-final.

In October 2016, the FPI predicted Michigan at 20 percent had a better chance than Clemson at 17 percent to win the national championship.

The ESPN FPI is so bad at being ‘predictive’ it is often derided, Jim Weber wrote,

"ESPN’s Power Index projections have gone from annoying to insufferable after repeatedly being shoved down our collective throats for the last eight months."

In the summer of 2016, Dabo Swinney appeared on College Football Live and said,

"“What is FPI? Is that like Finebaum Personal Interest? What is that? I’m trying to figure that out, and ya’ll are throwing out these (stats) and I’m like ‘What is FPI?’"

We would be remiss in not giving ESPN the opportunity to explain the FPI. Even if our platform is a megaphone compared to their satellite-driven, digital loudspeaker. Quoting the World Wide Leader,

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."

We will leave the summation of the FRI up to Will Vandervort writing in the Clemson Insider,

"It’s (the FPI) a formula ESPN made up for some reason. They act as if it is the gauge in which all things should be measured."

A made up formula for the purpose of attaching eyeballs to peripheral programming and creating what communication executives like to call ‘sizzle.’ We don’t intend to purposefully offend anyone in Bristol, but ‘thanks, but no thanks.’

Go ahead ESPN and pick Ohio State as No. 1 using the FPI. We Alabama football fans will get back at you. We’ll call Finebaum!

Next: 30 Great Crimson Tiders who were 3-Star recruits

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