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Alabama football predicted by ESPN as No. 1 program for next three seasons

By Ronald Evans

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - FEBRUARY 05: A view of the logo during ESPN The Party on February 5, 2016 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Mike Windle/Getty Images for ESPN)
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - FEBRUARY 05: A view of the logo during ESPN The Party on February 5, 2016 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Mike Windle/Getty Images for ESPN) /
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Alabama football predicted by ESPN as No. 1 program for next three seasons. Let’s look at the new rankings and how well ESPN did with the same task three years ago.

Three summers ago in 2014, ESPN ranked the Top 25 college football programs for the 2014-2016 seasons. Wisely, Alabama football was ranked No.1. Recently ESPN published a new ranking for the 2017-2019 seasons. Again Alabama football was ranked No. 1.

Before looking at the newest rankings, let’s review the methodology and review the accuracy from three years ago.

In 2014, the methodology was defined based on five categories: Coaching, Current Talent, Recruiting, Title Path and Program Power. A small number of ‘experts’ were asked to rate teams from 1-10 for each category.

Without getting into too much detail, the categories were weighted.  ‘Coaching’ and ‘Current Talent’ were weighted equally for a total of 55 percent. ‘Title Path’ carried the least weight at 10 percent. If you have an ESPN Insider account, you can see more detail at ESPN College Football Future Rankings.

For those of us who do not subscribe to ESPN Insider, 247 Sports published most of the rankings information.

So much for the methodology details. Our take on the Future Rankings is similar to what we posted in our review of the ESPN Football Power Index.

Looking back to 2014 and taking the top 15 future programs ranked by ESPN, we tracked actual performance. Our effort does not warrant being defined as a methodology. We simply measured win-loss records, conference championships, college football playoff appearances and national championships.

Those measurements were subjectively separated into three groups: good; not too bad; and terrible. Those groups and the actual team results from 2014-2016 are listed below.

Good Job ESPN (the first No. below is the ESPN future ranking in 2014)

  • No. 1, Alabama – 40-4 record; three SEC Championships; three CFB Playoff appearances; one National Championship
  • No. 3, Ohio State – 37-4; one B1G Championship; two CFB Playoff appearances; one National Championship
  • No. 7, Oklahoma – 30-9; two Big12 Championships; one CFB Playoff Appearance; zero National Championships
  • No. 15, Stanford – 30-10; one Pac 12 Championship; zero CFB Playoff appearances; zero National Championships

Not too bad, ESPN

  • No. 2, Florida State; 33-7; one ACC Championship; one CFB Playoff appearance, zero National Championships
  • No. 11, Clemson; 38-5; two ACC Championships; two CFB Playoff appearances; one National Championship.
  • No. 13, Oregon; 26-13; one Pac 12 Championship; one  CFB Playoff appearance; zero National Championships
  • No. 14, Florida; 26-13; zero SEC Championships; zero CFB Playoff appearances; zero National Championships

Terrible job, ESPN

  • No. 4, LSU; 25-12;  zero SEC Championships; zero CFB Playoff appearances; zero National Championships
  • No. 5, Auburn; 23-16; zero SEC Championships; zero CFB Playoff appearances; zero National Championships
  • No. 6, USC; 27-13; one Pac 12 Championship; zero CFB Playoff appearances; zero National Championships
  • No. 8, Georgia; 28-11;  zero SEC Championships; zero CFB Playoff appearances; zero National Championships
  • No. 9, Notre Dame; 22-16; zero CFB Playoff appearances; zero National Championships
  • No. 10, Texas; 16-21; zero Big 12 Championships; zero CFB Playoff appearances; zero National Championships
  • No. 12, Texas A&M; 24-15;  zero SEC Championships; zero CFB Playoff appearances; zero National Championships

These last seven teams, picked by ESPN to be in the top 12 programs for 2014-2016 lost 38.6 percent of their combined games. The best performance by any of them in the three-year period was 11 losses. Either these were massively underperforming programs or ESPN erred greatly.

In fairness to ESPN, we do not believe any other group of ‘experts’ would have been more accurate. College football is just too volatile to predict much of anything three years in advance. Unless of course, it is Alabama football.

The new ESPN Future Football Power Rankings have Alabama football No. 1 again. Compliments of 247 sports you can view a summary of the list without being an ESPN Insider.

Next: 30 Great Tide Players who were 3-Star Recruits

Looking back, we dished on ESPN when they fired staff while dropping Alabama from No. 1 in their preseason poll. In the link we cited at the top of this post, we questioned the value of the FPI. In this post, we appear to be going after them again.

Let’s be clear. We respect ESPN for being VERY good at almost everything they create and cover. They are not good at very few things – and even that statement is just our opinion.

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