One definition of a heretic that makes sense for Alabama football fans is anyone who talks about the Crimson Tide losing a game. But as Fall Camp begins, perhaps it is time to shade a bit toward the most realistic expectations for the Crimson Tide.
Most 'experts' are not projecting Alabama as a Playoff team. Those of us who disagree can still admit that many doubts about Bama in 2026 are justified. In early July, a true expert, Bill Connelly, ranked the Crimson Tide as the SEC's fifth-best team in his SP+ ratings. The odds of the SEC getting five Playoff teams are slim and none.
ESPN's FPI paints a more crimson picture. The FPI has Alabama as the SEC's third-highest-ranked team, edging out LSU and Texas A&M. The Texas Longhorns are the SEC's No. 1, followed by the Georgia Bulldogs at No. 2. The Crimson Tide plays three of the four in the regular season. Again, risking heresy, my take is that Alabama losing to two of the three would be acceptable.
The LSU game is viewed by many as a must-win for the Crimson Tide. I disagree. Alabama can afford losses to Georgia and LSU, as long as the Crimson Tide beats the Aggies. Even another slip-up, pushing Alabama to a 9-3 regular season record, would not knock the Tide out of the Playoff picture.
Alabama and Must-Wins
A simpler way to put it is that Alabama must beat one of Georgia, Texas A&M, and LSU. From a playoff scenario, losing to a highly ranked Georgia team would not be damning. The A&M game gets a must-win nod over the LSU game because it will be in Bryant-Denny. The LSU game will be in Baton Rouge.
Connelly identified five SEC teams as Playoff contenders. His order was Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, and Alabama. Measuring the five teams with Brian Fremeau's regular-season win probabilities is interesting. Georgia's highest probability is 33% and 11 wins. Alabama's highest is 29.5% and nine wins. With its tough schedule, the highest probability for Texas is 25.1% and eight wins. The Aggies are at 26.9% and eight wins. LSU is 24.3% and seven wins. Not included in Connelly's top SEC potential Playoff teams, Ole Miss is at 29.1% and nine wins.
I'll stick with A&M being Alabama's most important must-win, but an added conclusion is the abundance of SEC preseason modeling indicates the 2026 season will be a wild ride.
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