Finally, it is time.
All the hype, all the anticipation and attention for this one game. Alabama welcomes LSU the way only Tuscaloosa can. Tomorrow night, all the pent-up emotion of a city touched by tragedy and embracing their team will be unleashed when the Crimson Tide take the field in arguably the single most important game in the history of the team.
Hype for this game has reached unprecedented heights, to the point where the hype itself is the story. ESPN will offer dawn-to-dusk coverage, and the game will be analyzed from every conceivable angle. At bottom though, is the play of these young men and the abilities of the coaches that lead them. This – not hype, celebrity appearances or media talking heads – will ultimately decide whether the Tide or the Tigers leave the field the undisputed top team in the country.
We’ve decided this week to skip our regular picks, and focus on breaking this game down. Each of our writers will offer up what they see as the keys to victory, and what they see as the x-factor in this game, along with their final score prediction. We invite you to leave your predictions in the comments.
Hare Bryant’s Keys to Victory
Wildcat. The wildcat formation allows the offense to attack with 11 on 11, whereas a rush out of the pro-set is generally 10 on 11 since the QB does not actively block or run pass routes. By forcing LSU to waste a defender on AJ, the wildcat takes a man out of the box and lets the blockers execute one on one. This plays to Alabama’s advantage, because the next defender to tackle Trent Richardson on first contact will be the first. I would be much more comfortable on 4th and 2 running Trent or Lacy out of the wildcat than risking a long field goal attempt.
Physicality. LSU has not been physically assaulted for 60 minutes this season and the Tide must make three hours inside Bryant-Denny stadium feel like a 20-year sentence with Boggs and the Sisters in Shawshank. The main difference I have been able to discern between the two teams is that LSU makes their living off the big play, while Alabama prefers methodical, balanced drives on offense and to break a team’s will in the 4th quarter on defense. Alabama’s players need to hit LSU hard on every block and every tackle and break their spirits. I refuse to believe any opponent will be mentally tougher than a Nick Saban coached team, so by constantly pounding on them their concentration is bound to lapse, creating openings for the Tide.
Two or fewer FG attempts. If there is one area LSU has a major advantage it is in the kicking game. Cade Foster can’t hit the broad side of an Auburn girl, so long field goal tries are simply not an option on Saturday. I hope only to see Jeremy Shelley on extra points and perhaps a short field goal to extend a lead to double digits. I have about as much confidence in Tide kickers to hit a game-winning field goal as I do in Charlie Weis to win a limbo contest.
X-Factor: Michael Williams and Brad Smelley. This is the game for the Bama tight ends to shine. On running plays they need to take out a linebacker, allowing Trent and Eddie to get to the secondary. LSU’s defensive backs are fast and talented, but they are not big. If there are multiple occurrences of Trent Richardson lowering his shoulder into Tyrann Mathieu, I think it bodes well for our beloved Crimson Tide. In the passing game, I think it is essential to get a few passes complete to the tight ends early. AJ is a quarterback who is fueled by his confidence and you can usually tell how he is feeling early on in the game. I don’t think our senior wideouts are going to be able to get open very often, so the tight ends may be our best weapons in the passing attack. AJ needs to get his mojo working from the outset so he is confident that he can throw on the mighty LSU defense.
Prediction: Alabama 17 – LSU 10
Tider N FL‘s Keys to Victory
Protect A.J. Responsibility falls on the coaches and O-line here. Call plays giving him a check down receiver to dump the ball off to. LSU will come after him and A.J. doesn’t need to take hits on every play, so being able to pick up blitzes will be crucial.
Physical Blocking. The O-line is as physical a unit as there is, and they don’t need to change that. Trent and company don’t need gaping holes; just get him to the second level. Keep the D-line from hitting him in the backfield and put a hat on a hat, the LB’s and DB’s are outmatched against him. Give him a chance and let him run.
Dance with the girl you came with. Don’t do things unusual to the players; do what you do. Wrinkles are good but don’t stray too far from what got you there. Players need to do the same, don’t try and do things differently, play within yourself and do your job.
X-Factor: The experience of losing last year and being familiar with LSU. Most of the players realize they beat themselves last year and they know LSU well. No shell shock or intimidation is going to take place on Bama’s sideline. Confidence, experience and payback are in Alabama’s favor and those “never again” signs in the locker room aren’t just for Auburn.
Prediction: Alabama 27 – LSU 13
SleepWriter’s Keys to Victory
Passing to Run. Alabama has a fleet of running backs and LSU will try to stop the run early. Alabama has a tendency to try to force runs up the middle but the plays are going to have to be more creative to set the teams apart early. McCarron will need to hit some early passes to open the field. The passing game will have to set up the run. The offense has been very balanced this season — surprisingly so — but the LSU defense will be the biggest test yet.
Special teams. Alabama doesn’t kick into the end zone and that could be a problem. However, the kicking team has covered the returns much better this season, so far, than last year. They cannot afford a breakdown this week.
Intensity. Every aspect of this game is a big deal. The fans need to be loud, the players need to hit hard, and the pressure needs to be overwhelming. The students section should be furiously loud since they will have all day to “prepare” to scream. The team cannot afford to start slow as it did against Vandy. The intensity early on could be an indicator.
X-Factor: The mental game. This game will come down to who makes the fewest mistakes. LSU tends to get more penalties (almost twice as much penalty yardage), but has a much better turnover margin (2nd in the nation) than Alabama (19th). Turnovers and penalties could be the biggest factor.
Prediction: Alabama 32 – LSU 21
TonyOrlando’s Keys to the Game
The Gunslinger. We’ve seen it the last two A-Day games – and very little at any other point – but AJ McCarron is the best passer Alabama has seen since Brodie Croyle. Yet, since McCarron won the starting job Coach Saban has yelled, cajoled and done everything but tie one arm to his side to force McCarron to become a game manager like his champion predecessor. Look for the training wheels to come off Saturday, and the Tide to open up the passing attack early. Everybody in the stands and across the country knows Alabama is a power running team. Don’t be surprised to see Saban turn the Gunslinger loose.
Turnovers. Both teams are on the good side of the turnover ratio, and stat freaks are pointing to this as a big advantage for the Tigers. LSU has only turned the ball over three times this season, while Alabama has turned it over eight times. But that statistic is deceptive. Alabama committed five turnovers in the opener against Kent State, including two picks by Phillip Sims. Throw out that game and the Tide have only coughed it up three times. If McCarron doesn’t force the ball and our receivers don’t have to bail him out, the Tide can let the secondary play with reckless abandon and try to take the ball away.
Inevitability. By the end of the third quarter, the adrenaline rush will be gone. Cramping will be setting in, and players will be lying on the field. Over a hundred thousand fans screaming down at the field will make a deafening noise. And in every direction, people will be holding up four fingers, signifying that the fourth quarter belongs to Alabama. If at this moment in the heavyweight championship fight LSU is behind on points, and see a well-conditioned Crimson Tide ready to line up, a creeping sense of inevitability may turn a close game into a blowout.
X-Factor: You think a crowd doesn’t affect a well-prepared team? How often did you hear the Corndog Nation whine about not having a night game this season in Death Valley? Make no mistake: in terms of national attention, championship implications and the possibility of the game actually living up to the hype, this is the biggest game in the history of Alabama football. Throw in the tragedy that befell Tuscaloosa earlier this year, and the crowd will be absolutely insane by kickoff. You want to know the X-Factor of this game? Put yourself in the shoes of LSU’s quarterback the first time he has to stand under center on third down to call an audible.
Prediction: Alabama 30 – LSU 17