The Crimson Tide are 10-1 heading into week thirteen of the 2011 season. Due to an unprecedented turn of events over the last two weeks, Alabama sits at No. 2 in the BCS poll. If the Tide wins this weekend, they’re almost guaranteed a spot in the national championship game. The only thing standing in the way of Alabama’s second BCS title appearance in three years is the 7-4 Auburn Tigers.
The Tigers are lucky to have won seven games thus far, but a win against Alabama would completely overshadow all the lows they have suffered this year. The Crimson Tide has the best defensive unit in all of college football, while the Tigers have struggled to get into the end zone against quality opponents. Alabama is giving up 8.3 points per game while Auburn surrenders 28.1 points per game. Auburn’s two best players is probably the running back duo of Mike Dyer and Ontario McCaleb; two very different types of players and the strength of the Tiger offense. That poses significant concern for the coaching staff on the Plains, because Alabama is bringing the nation’s best run defense to town.
Last week Georgia Southern’s option offense put up over 300 yards on the Tide defense, and while that brings hope to Tiger fans, it’s a false hope, as the Tide defense didn’t have key players on the field in that game. Yards on the ground will be very tough to come by for Auburn, as Alabama will have everyone except backup safety Will Lowery back for this game.
The key stat is that the Tide ranks first in every major defensive category, and Auburn ranks 78th in the nation (8th in the SEC) in scoring offense. After last year’s game, in which Alabama dominated the Tigers offense in the first half and fell apart in the second half, the Tide defense has been eagerly awaiting payback. Make no mistake; Alabama has a lot to play for and a lot to lose. Auburn has little to play for except the chance to ruin Alabama’s title hopes.
Anyone that buys all the talk about this being just another game for Alabama players is crazy. The Tide understands how much can go wrong if they’re not fully focused and too emotional, but don’t think they aren’t going to be pumped about the chance to get redemption. This game is huge for Alabama on many levels, and they will show up ready for anything, while Auburn will have their delusional home fans to keep their emotions high.
There are so many factors that go into a rivalry game that one simply can’t focus on X’s and O’s, but in the end it always comes down to execution.
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When Alabama is on Offense: When it’s all said and done, the Alabama offense is all about Trent Richardson and the Tide’s ability to run the ball. He is on top of the Heisman race by a very slim margin, and likely won’t have the luxury of a conference title game to improve on his numbers, so this game is crucial in that respect. Auburn gives up almost 200 yards rushing per game, and they just don’t have the defense to shut Trent down. The Tigers have had some success in the last two games slowing Alabama’s rushing attack, but this year they simply don’t have the personnel.
Look for Auburn’s defense to stack the box with eight or nine players, and Alabama will probably begin the game passing the ball to back them off a bit. The player to watch is Auburn’s Corey Lemonier. He is a good pass rusher and playmaker for the Tigers defense. AJ McCarron should find success early and often through the air, with Auburn giving up well over 200 yards passing per game and likely selling out to stop Alabama’s run. Cheating up safeties and cornerbacks to stop Alabama’s excellent running back trio leaves the other corners on an island all by themselves to cover the Tide’s speedy receivers.
Play action passing should pay big dividends for the Tide, with Brad Smelley and Michael Williams slipping off the line into the middle of the field. In the end, Auburn just doesn’t have the size or experience on defense to stop the Tide offense, and Alabama should have their way as the game drags on.
The biggest problem the Auburn defense has exhibited this year has been a lack of fundamentals in tackling, and with Richardson being the hardest player in college football to bring down, it will be a long day for the barn.
Advantage – Alabama
When Alabama is on Defense: Everyone knows Gus Malzahn is a very creative and tricky offensive coordinator, and we should expect him to empty his bag of tricks come Saturday. The problem isn’t the offensive scheme, it’s the lack of personnel for the Tigers. They just don’t have the offensive talent or experience to seriously threaten the Tide defense.
Auburn has three quarterbacks they can utilize, but none of them have been good this year. Dont’a Hightower and Courtney Upshaw are the best linebackers Auburn will see this year, and should make life miserable for whomever Auburn has in the game. Sophomore QB Clint Moseley will likely start, and freshman Kiel Frazier will come in at times to change the look of the offense. Moseley is not a running QB by any means and has been really bad when pressured. Frazier is different in that he is expected to become Newton 2.0 sometime in the future, and mostly runs the ball when he comes in.
Auburn only has a few plays that Frazier runs but may try him out a little more in this game, thinking the Tide may have more trouble with him than Moseley. The Tigers offensive line is not very good or deep, and Dyer/McCaleb will have to earn every single yard. Auburn only averages 167 yards passing per game and has struggled all year to protect the QB from the rush. On the other hand , Alabama has been just brutal on offenses and after last week will remind viewers why they’re the best. If Moseley doesn’t get the ball out of his hands fast in passing situations, he will be in big trouble. He will be looking for Auburn’s best receiver, Emory Blake, who is the only real threat for Auburn’s passing game.
Advantage – Alabama by a mile
Normally records and the state of the season for either team goes out the window in a rivalry this big, but not this year. Auburn just isn’t equipped to put a scare into Alabama or derail their national championship hopes. After what happened last year, Auburn should consider themselves extremely lucky to put any points on the board. This Alabama defense literally has at least eight players that will play in the NFL and have had to endure an entire year of ridicule and embarrassment for last season’s second half letdown.
Auburn will be on national television in front of their home crowd, and are sure to be excited and fired up to play, but I don’t expect that excitement and enthusiasm to last past the first quarter. The Tide just has a way of pounding the life out of opponents and stripping their spirits early, and they want payback. The mental images of $cam and Fairley running around Bryant-Denny laughing about the luck they stumbled upon has been imbedded into the players memory for an entire year, and they get to take their frustrations out Saturday.
Prediction: Alabama 42 – Auburn 9
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