The end of the dreadfully long offseason is finally in sight. SEC Media Days are going on in Hoover, Alabama, marking the start of the home stretch. In a few short weeks training camp will open and actual football related activities will transpire.
Over the past few years I have noticed a phenomenon that occurs this time of year, when the preseason magazines start to come out and Birmingham becomes the center of the college football universe for a midsummer week. Each season, the media chooses a dark horse darling; a sexy, under-the-radar pick to win either the East or West, and possibly the entire SEC. While there might not be anything out of the ordinary about football media types picking a dark horse team, I find the practice funny because every year the punditocracy members anoint a team, raise expectations for that team, then come football season see that team pull up lame.
A pattern has emerged from preseasons past, where the talking heads and typing fingers of the media fall in love with a team because of a strong-armed quarterback or shiny new offense. Remember when transfer quarterback Jevan Snead was supposed to Texas-Two-Step the Rebels all the way to Atlanta? Well, about a half dozen interceptions in two games against Alabama popped that bubble pretty quick. After being spurned by Snead, the media focused their affections on another transfer quarterback, Ryan Mallett. Arkansas put its faith into the right arm of Mallett and in doing so, neglected to invest in other facets of the game, such as a running game or a defense. The 2010 game against Auburn exposed the flaw in the Hawgs’ plan. Although they scored 43 points, they allowed 65. A team should not allow 65 points in a month, much less a game. That game was a complete abomination and an insult to the beauty of solid, fundamental, defensive football.
Two broken hearts by stud quarterbacks sent the jilted media types in a different direction. They swooned over an older, more mature target; Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen and his exciting new spread offense. The Bullies had sneaked up on a few teams in Mullen’s first season, and Dapper Dan was widely expected to challenge LSU and Alabama for Western Division supremacy, setting hearts aflame along the way. That pesky not-playing-defense problem arose again however, and Mississippi State proved unable to beat a single Western Division opponent, except for Ole Miss, which is like losing a foot race to everybody except Charlie Weis.
Who will be the 2012 team that writers will fall in love with, only to have their affections go unrequited? Alabama and LSU are out of the running since they are the heavy favorites. Georgia is not a dark horse due to raised expectations for 2012, which usually proves toxic to the Dawgs. South Carolina cannot be considered a dark horse either as Eastern Division co-favorite (As an aside: Really South Carolina? Ordering rings for an 11-win season in which you didn’t actually win squat? That bush league stuff should be expected from the ACC or Big East, not the SEC). Arkansas could have been the pick, but the Petrino episode has soured the pundits on the Hawgs. Auburn, Ole Miss and Kentucky are out since it is common knowledge that those teams are just plain awful. The newbies can’t yet be considered dark horses, especially since they are coming from the Big 12.
The logical choices should be Florida and Vanderbilt. Florida has a lot of raw talent, a legitimate defense, and (in my opinion) a good coach in Will Muschamp. With no stud quarterback to set hearts aflutter though, the media will treat Florida like an Auburn cheerleader and not even give her a second look. Despite having a charismatic, talented young coach in James Franklin and a quarterback whose brother in one of the best in the NFL, Vandy is largely overlooked mostly due to history. Vanderbilt has never been competitive at much of anything, outside of ship building and commerce, and that was mostly due to Cornelius Vanderbilt and not the actual university. The Commodores are better known as Lionel Richie’s original band, not a football team. I expect the media to see Vandy not as as having potential to be mighty mighty, but as a brick house in need of repair.
My prediction for the groupthink dark horse candidate of 2012 Media Days is the Tennessee Volunteers. I think the punditocracy will fall head over heels and be caught up in the siren song of quarterback Tyler Bray. They will undoubtedly be entranced by Bray’s strong arm and ability to throw a pretty spiral. Throw in the return of receivers Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers and the media won’t be able to help themselves. Never mind the fact that in practice, Tennessee’s offense has been mostly anemic. Combined with a defense that scares nobody and an alarming attrition of talent, Tennessee has all the trappings of a team that will woo football writers in the preseason, only to leave them broken-hearted and jaded come bowl season.
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