2014 SEC Preview: Breaking Down the SEC West
By Mike McCrary
Despite having to replace three elite quarterbacks in 2014 – LSU’s Zach Mettenberger, Alabama’s AJ McCarron and Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel – the SEC West remains the best division this side of the NFC West.
Alabama. LSU. Auburn. Texas A&M. You won’t find four better teams in most conferences, let alone a division. Ole Miss and Mississippi State aren’t bad, either.
Whoever comes out of this division will in all likelihood make it all the way to the national title game, after a pitstop in Atlanta to collect the SEC title. Here’s how we see the Western division shaking out.
1. Alabama
In recent years, the Crimson Tide has been so far out in front of the rest of the country that LSU fans need a telescope to find them. Three titles in five years. A whisker away from playing for another. Throw in 2008, when the Tide was eight minutes away from a national title game appearance, and there’s no question who stands alone as the premier program in America.
This year should be more of the same, despite the loss of McCarron and linebacker C.J. Mosely. Let’s not forget that the last two Tide quarterbacks – McCarron and Greg McElroy – won national titles in their first year as a starter. In fact, four of the last five national title-winners had first-year starting quarterbacks, so having experience at the position is not the necessity it once was.
LSU and Auburn should be hotly-contested battles. Ole Miss, Florida and Texas A&M could be interesting. And Mississippi State is never easy when it comes the week after LSU. But once again, the team with the best chance to beat Alabama … is Alabama.
Expect a deep and talented front seven on defense to carry the load early on, complimented by an explosive and equally deep stable of running backs. As the season wears on and projected starting quarterback Jacob Coker gains experience, Nick Saban and company should once again be the best team in America. Even if it stumbles once along the way, the Tide should land in the Jerry Dome in early January to play for its fourth national title in six seasons.
2. LSU
Note to Les Miles. Playing Florida has never cost your team a division title. Never. Not a single time. You’d be better off lobbying to avoid Alabama, because your real problem is the elephant in the room, not the alligator.
Despite all the whining from Red Stick, LSU has the talent to finish second in the division – even if it loses to Auburn on the road. The defense will be a little younger, but just as gifted. And a veteran offensive line returns to help hide the inexperience of a new starting quarterback.
3. Auburn
While its chief rival keeps going about the business of making history, the Tigers are the undisputed champions of revising it. They couldn’t change their losing record against Vanderbilt because those games were actually played, so they instead awarded themselves additional national titles based on games they didn’t play. Evidently, some games really are won on paper.
On the field, the Tigers do have a talented team returning. But their run to last year’s title game was paved by a series of improbable victories, a thrashing at the hands of LSU, and a handful of other games that could have gone either way. Quarterback Nick Marshall and a veteran offensive line will keep them in most games, but don’t expect fortune to smile so widely at them this time around.
4. Texas A&M
Bad news: Johnny Manziel and Mike Evans are gone. Worse news: most everyone on defense is back. But if there’s one thing we know about head coach Kevin Sumlin, it’s that he can score points. Road games at South Carolina, Alabama and Auburn will be the Aggies undoing, keeping them from rising higher than fourth in the division.
5. Ole Miss
Hugh Freeze has recruited well the past couple of years, but his classes have been top-heavy. Meaning the Black Bears have seven or eight players who are every bit as good as the top end in Tuscaloosa or Baton Rouge, but there’s a significant drop off beyond that.
In 2013, behind the steady play of returning quarterback Bo Wallace and a disruptive defensive line, Ole Miss was good enough to steamroll Texas in Austin and upset LSU. But they were also bad enough to lose to Mississippi State and get blown out by Alabama. Expect more of the same this year.
6. Mississippi State
You almost feel sorry for Dan Mullen. Almost. He gets the most out of his talent. But almost everyone he plays has more of it.
To win big in the SEC, you have to have a significant margin for error, because no team can play at its full potential every week. Alabama and LSU can bring their B-game and still win 10 games. The Bulldogs don’t have that luxury, which means at least eight teams on their schedule are good enough to beat them. They’ll lose at least five of them, which will be good enough to avoid the SEC West cellar, but not much else.
7. Arkansas
They call themselves Hogzilla these days. But saying it does not make it so. In the ACC, this could be a bowl game contender. In the SEC, these monsters will get mashed – at least seven times in the SEC alone. Texas Tech and Northern Illinois won’t be easy, either. Not for the least talented team in the division.
Head coach Bret Bielema is trying to return the Razorbacks to the hard-nosed outfit it was under Houston Nutt. He needs more hard noses, and that’s going to take at least two more recruiting classes. The good news for the Hogs is that there’s not a lot of disparity between them and the two teams just above them in the SEC West pecking order. One upset against the right team could get them out of the basement. But they’ve got a long way to go to even get within sniffing distance of the penthouse.