College Football Playoff: How Every Conference Could Get Left Out
This was a great win for the Huskers but it may have doomed the Big Ten. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
The Big Ten
An undefeated Big Ten champion would definitely go to the playoff, even if it’s Iowa with their lackluster schedule.
Ohio State’s backloaded schedule could be what keeps the Buckeyes out of the playoffs. Losing in November is a tough look, especially since a loss to Michigan State would lose the division for Ohio State. If OSU loses to Michigan and beats Michigan State, they would still advance to the Big 10 Championship.
A win in the conference championship game would knock Iowa out of playoff consideration. If Clemson and either Oklahoma State or Baylor wins out, it’s unlikely that Ohio State would have a strong enough schedule to get the nod over 1-loss Notre Dame and a 1-loss SEC Champion.
With their only loss out of division, Michigan State wins the East if they win out. A signature win over Ohio State late in the year and a thrilling win over Michigan would be good for their resume, and an early November loss in Lincoln probably wouldn’t be enough to keep them out. Sparty’s out of conference resume isn’t great, but even in a disappointing year Oregon is a solid power-5 team. If the Spartans continue to win, they’re probably ok.
But Michigan could play spoiler with some help from their most hated Buckeyes. If Ohio State beats Michigan State and then loses to Michigan, Michigan wins the Big 10 East with only one conference loss. If Michigan goes on to expose Iowa’s soft schedule and win the Big 10 Championship game, the Big 10 may get left out. 2 loss Michigan, even as a conference champion, probably won’t get a playoff spot.
One loss Ohio State could get invited instead, but with their loss so late in the season it’s easy to see how there might not be a space for them above undefeated ACC and Big 12 champions, one loss Notre Dame, and one-loss Pac-12 and SEC Champions.
Another problem could arise in the Big 10 if anyone but Iowa wins the West and pulls off an upset in the conference championship game. Wisconsin and Northwestern are still in the running in the Big 10 West. Neither of these Big 10 champions would be attractive to the committee, and a Big 10 team with a November regular season loss and a loss in the conference championship game probably shouldn’t hold their breath for an invite either.
Next: How The PAC-12 Could Get Left Out Of The Playoff