Alabama Football: Will 2017 Be ‘Run-Daboll’ Or ‘Air-Daboll’ Or Something Else?

Scoring and First Downs – 2016 Compared to 2015

The 2016 Alabama football offense was more potent than 2015 in three of five scoring and first down categories.

Points Per Game Average and Total Points were up over ten percent. In 2016 much attention was given to the points, producing productivity of the Tide defense. Eleven non-offensive touchdowns were scored by the defense. Almost forgotten by fans is the fact the 2015 Tide scored 76 points off of opponent turnovers.

In 2016, Passing First Downs were down more than Rushing First Downs were up. Total First Downs were also less in 2016.

Conclusion No. 1

An offense that increases its points production, but gains fewer first downs is inconsistent with standard Saban design. Nick Saban wants to wear down defenses more than he wants to outscore other offenses.

Scoring and First Downs – 2016 Compared to National Championship Offenses – 2011, 2012, 2015

The trend of Points up and Rushing First Downs up continue in this comparison. The big difference in comparing 2016 to the national championship seasons is that Passing First Downs were down even more. The 2016 Passing First Downs were over 20 percent less than the Alabama football,  three championship season average.

Conclusion No. 2

The 2016 Offense was a more run-dependent offense than the 2015, 2012 and 2011 Alabama football offenses.

Conclusion No. 3

A closer balance between rushing and passing productivity contributed to national championship success.