Alabama Football: Is Auburn really 14.5 points better in 2017?
By Ronald Evans
Alabama football has obstacles to overcome before traveling to Jordan-Hare on November 25. There is a buzz about Auburn being the Tide’s toughest foe. Will the Tigers be 14.5 points better in 2017?
The Vegas casino, South Point has put up odds for key Alabama football games. Of particular interest are the odds for the Iron Bowl. Last May, this casino set the 2016 Iron Bowl line at 18 points. As we know, the final score was Tide 30 – Tigers 12. That’s some pretty spiffy picking.
Odds on sports games are not actually designed to predict outcomes. Their purpose is to equalize the betting between two teams. The sports betting industry wins when close to equal money is wagered on both opponents in a game.
Alabama Crimson Tide Football
The 2017 Iron Bowl odds may reflect the possibility Auburn will be better in 2017 while Alabama may be worse. More correctly, the odds match the general prognostication that Auburn will be a much improved team in 2017. Plus, some points shift in the spread by virtue of the game being in Auburn.
Given that, we can still ask is it warranted for the predicted spread to drop from 18 points last season to 3.5 points in 2017?
Contrary to the opinions of many fans, home field advantage does not greatly affect a game’s predicted spread. Historically the home field boost was considered to be 3 points on average. Today’s sportsbooks make it at 2 points or less.
Strongly believing Jordan-Hare gives the Tigers a big boost would only account for about 2.5 points in the spread. What accounts for the other 12 points in the spread difference between 2016 and 2017?
Many CFB experts believe Auburn will be improved in 2017. Here is one example from an anonymous SEC coach, published in Lindy’s Sports’ 2017 SEC preview magazine and reported by saturdaydownsouth.com.
"“I think Auburn has the best defensive line in the country. They have nine NFL players on their D-line. The linebackers are talented; the secondary is good. They have four to five very talented corners and the two safeties are back. The defense is one of the better ones in the country… As long as Gus Malzahn stays out of the way and lets Chip Lindsey develop a plan and call the game, Auburn will be better.”"
That is a strong endorsement of the Auburn defense, that must replace Montravious Adams and Carl Lawson. Beyond the considerable praise for Kevin Steele’s 2017 defense, there remains a BIG IF.
A few weeks ago, we reviewed the four new Offensive Coordinators the Tide will face in 2017 Phil Longo, Larry Scott, Matt Canada and Chip Lindsey. We posed this question:
"The big question in Auburn is whether anyone not wearing a sweater vest is allowed to touch an offensive clipboard. Gus has sworn to fully relinquish the offensive control to Chip Lindsey. How many successive three-and-outs in key games will it take Gus to swear something else?"
We were joking about the sweater vest but every other word was quite serious. We don’t think Gus is any more capable of NOT coaching his offense than Nick would be NOT coaching Tide defensive backs. Auburn has four tough road games, plus Georgia at home before the Iron Bowl. If the Auburn offense stumbles in any of them, we give the odds on a Gus meltdown as 50-50.
Next: If the Aubies have 9 NFL players on the D-Line, has many does the Tide have?
As an afterthought, we are not sold on the anonymous coach statement that Auburn has nine future NFL players on its defensive line. Going back to 2009, Alabama has had 12 D-linemen drafted. If Auburn has nine in 2017, the Tigers should make the CFB Playoff.