SEC Football: It is about to be ‘Silly Season’ for SEC coaches
By Ronald Evans
The revolving door for SEC coaches usually happens in November and December. Due to the new recruiting, Early Signing Period, the ‘Silly Season’ may hit early this year.
Some SEC football fanbases are nervous. A few more are angry. Even fewer are content with their team and their team’s head coach. The ‘Silly Season’ for head coach firings and hirings will commence earlier than normal in 2017. The new NCAA Early Signing Period in recruiting begins on December 20th.
Lack of success in the early signing period may or may not mean failure in the 2018 recruiting cycle. No one knows how top player decision timing will evolve with the new rule. Inaction or delayed action by Athletic Directors could severely damage a 2018 recruiting class.
The explosion of money in college football has devalued patience. Many Power Five schools can afford to spend big money on coaches. With the huge contracts come not expectations, but demands for quick success. Win, win big and win quickly.
History of SEC Football Championships
It is an arms race driven by money and often by unrealistic expectations. Nowhere are unrealistic expectations more evident than in SEC football. In this century, 17 SEC football championships have been won by just five schools: Alabama (5); LSU (4); Auburn (3); Florida (3) and Georgia (2).
Tennessee has not won a SEC football championship since 1998.
Kentucky has not won a SEC championship since 1976. That one comes with an asterisk because the Cats did not win it on the field. In 1978, after Mississippi State had to forfeit all its games for participation by an ineligible player, UK was awarded a win that gave the Cats a share of the 1976 SEC championship.
Ole Miss has not won a SEC football championship since 1963. Mississippi State has only one SEC football championship ever, in 1941.
Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Missouri have never won a SEC football championship.
Future of SEC Football Championships
Realistically only half the league can actually compete for a SEC football championship. There can always be a fluke, wonder season for a SEC team. Arkansas, South Carolina and Missouri have played in SEC championship games this century.
Outside those occasional flukes, history shows future SEC championships will be won by Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU and Tennessee. The Vols are fast slipping from credible inclusion in the championship-potential group.
Only one other team has the financial resources and recruiting base to break into the top group; Texas A&M.
Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, Arkansas and Vanderbilt can have winning seasons, go bowling and periodically knock off top teams. They are just not championship caliber, SEC football programs.
When the group of seven, lower caliber SEC football programs hire and fire coaches, perspective should be applied. South Carolina, Kentucky and Vanderbilt should be content with however far Will Muschamp, Mark Stoops and Derek Mason can take them. Mississippi State is not likely to ever have a better coach than Dan Mullin. Ole Miss will never contend without cheating. Arkansas will have a tough time finding a better coach than Bret Bielema.
Ole Miss and Missouri would be justified to try and rebuild with a new coach. Perhaps the same is true for Arkansas. Tennessee has no choice but make a change. Auburn may not be far from the same situation.
Maybe tossing around ridiculous amounts of money (contracts and buyouts) makes sense at those five schools. Even so, the odds of any future coaching changes upending the SEC football status quo are slight.
The cost of SEC Head Coach Changes
The range for top coaches is an insane $5 – $10 million dollars per season. Paying at the top end carries no guarantee. $9 million has done little for Michigan.
The other problem is the buyouts when firing a coach. Take a look at a few in the SEC.
- Butch Jones – $8 million, plus another $3-$5 million for assistant buyouts.
- Kevin Sumlin – $10 million
- Bret Bielema – $5.9 million (some sources state it is as high as $12 million)
- Gus Malzahn – $6.7 million
- Jim McElwain – $12.5 million
- Ed Orgeron – $12 million, plus LSU still owes Les Miles $9 million
- Barry Odom – $1.8 million
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The other byproduct of the massive dollars in college football goes beyond the ‘Silly Season.’ Coaches are given little time to build programs. Barry Odom is at ‘Hot Seat’ status with Missouri after coaching less than 20 games. Making him even more vulnerable is his paltry less than $2 million buyout.