The first CFB Playoff ranking will be released on October 31st. How much does the Alabama football Strength of Schedule matter to the committee?
On the eve of All Hallows Eve, Alabama football fans are delving into the alchemy of the CFB Playoff Committee’s decision process. What matters the most, the ‘Eye Test’ or Strength of Schedule (SOS)?
As Nick Saban so emphatically stated on Monday of LSU week, the first poll ranking means nothing. Only the committee’s ‘last poll matters’ is a common coaching refrain. If Alabama football takes care of business and finishes the regular season at 13-0, none of the rankings much matter. The Tide will be a Playoff lock.
However, should that final regular season record be 12-1 or 11-1, Alabama football will be thrown into a wild foray of teams suffering one-loss agony. We will hold off for a week or so on all the permutations that can create one-loss agony for the Tide.
Currently, there are four undefeated Power Five teams: Alabama, Georgia, Wisconsin and Miami. There is a high probability that after the conference championship games, only one or two remain unbeaten. The committee could be choosing between six or seven teams for two or three playoff slots.
Last season, Committee Chair, Kirby Hocutt said,
"“our mission … is to select the four very best teams in college football. We talk about the metrics that are provided to us when there are two teams that are comparable to one another: conference championships, strength of schedule, head-to-head outcomes, games against common opponents. All of that matters to the selection committee.”"
The metrics are clear. How they are weighted is cloudy. Then there is the other selection criteria Hocutt did not mention. The ‘Eye Test’ allows subjective agreement to conclude x team is better than y team, thereby overcoming one or more of the metrics.
So far (knock on wood) Alabama football is winning the ‘Eye Test’ category. As a result of the FSU collapse, the Crimson Tide is not trending well in SOS. Teamrankings.com has Alabama football at No. 38 in the FBS. Future games will drive the Tide’s SOS up, but possibly not enough. There are some, top, one-loss teams who could outpace the Tide in SOS at the end of the season.
Does Alabama football have to go undefeated to make the CFB Playoff this season? Would a one-loss Alabama have the ‘Eye Test’ clout to leap over one-loss conference champions? Despite Nick Saban’s protestations, the first Playoff ranking will indicate a general response to the Tide. If on Halloween night, the Tide is not ranked No. 1, it will indicate the committee’s concern about the Alabama football SOS.
How much a No. 2 ranking should spook Alabama football fans is debatable.
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It is hard to imagine a one-loss Crimson Tide team failing to qualify for the CFB Playoff. But reason suggests it could happen. Nick has the best plan. Just beat everybody – one at a time.