Alabama Football: One loss and the CFB Playoff, what would it take?
By Ronald Evans
Alabama football sits again at the top of the College Football Playoff rankings. Can the Tide drop a game and still make the Playoff field?
Three rankings into the CFB Playoff selection process, the committee has Alabama football on top again. We are halfway to college football’s Selection Sunday on December 3rd.
The fact the Crimson Tide has been regularly ranked No. 1 in the AP and Coaches poll no longer matters. The opinion of the CFB Selection Committee reigns supreme. There is no question beating Mercer, Auburn and Georgia will, of course, leave Alabama football at the top of the committee’s final ranking.
There is a compelling and troubling question about what happens if the Tide loses one of its last three games. We are not inside the heads of the committee and media spin on the issue can be misleading. After Auburn’s thumping of Georgia, few national media figures espouse a one-loss Tide team making the Playoff field.
Other than an earth-shattering loss to Mercer (which will not happen), Alabama football will not be eliminated with one loss. Too many other teams are at risk of their resumes being damaged in upcoming games.
Let’s review the current Top 10 (minus the Tide) and Playoff chances
No. 2 Clemson – The Tigers have the Citadel, South Carolina and Miami in the ACC championship game. At 9-1, Clemson probably cannot lose another game.
No. 3 Miami – The undefeated Canes might survive a loss as long as it is not against Clemson. Losing to 4-6 Pitt would be a major problem, but a loss to Virginia would not automatically eliminate them.
No. 4 Oklahoma – Oklahoma must win out against Kansas, West Virginia and the Big12 title game.
No. 5 Wisconsin – There is no guarantee a one-loss Badger team makes the final four. The path is not easy with Michigan, Minnesota and the B1G Ten title game.
No. 6 Auburn – The new ‘media darling’ team must go 3-0. One more loss and the Tigers are out.
No. 7 Georgia – Unless there is major carnage above them, the Bulldogs must win out.
No. 8 Notre Dame – Forget it, the Irish are done. Sitting on conference championship weekend kills any chances to move up.
No. 9 Ohio State – Going 3-0 against Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin might not be enough to get the two-loss Buckeyes in.
No. 10 Penn State – The Nittany Lions need help getting to the B1G title game, namely Michigan beating Ohio State. Even if they make the championship game, a 3-0 run may not be enough.
What about a one-loss Crimson Tide?
After beating Mercer, Alabama football must beat Auburn to remove another contender from the Playoff hunt. Then, a close loss to Georgia might not knock the Tide out of the final four.
Other contender attrition would have to take place. The ACC championship game loser probably cannot bump out the Tide, even if it is one-loss Miami. Additionally, Wisconsin and Oklahoma would have to lose in the next three weeks.
Games outside the Top 10 may also have an impact. Crimson Tide chances improve if Mississippi State and LSU win out and finish 9-3 with at least one of them inside the top 15.
Alabama football fatigue is so prevalent nationwide, it is fair to wonder if it affects the committee. If it does not, then a one-loss Crimson Tide could make the playoff.
Here are the complete Top 25 Rankings from the College Football Playoff Committee.
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