Alabama Football: No mystery in beating the Tigers, stop the run

The key to an Alabama football victory over Auburn is simple. Stopping Gus Malzahn’s run-heavy attack is the most important factor in beating Auburn.

Shut down the Tigers run game and Alabama football wins. It has been just that simple during Gus Malzahn’s five seasons as Auburn’s head coach. Not to imply it is simple to stop Auburn’s running game. Auburn’s opponents are frequently gashed. Take away Jarrett Stidham’s weak rushing average and in 2017 Auburn has run for almost 5.9 yards-per-carry.

Auburn’s rushing attack or an over-dependence on it has also been the Tigers greatest weakness. This season, Offensive Coordinator Chip Lindsey was brought in (some say pushed in over Gus’ objections) to remedy that weakness.

ICYIMI: Gus to Arkansas could affect the Iron Bowl

Lindsey was tasked with making Auburn’s offense more explosive through the air. Despite some apparent debates with Malzahn over play-calling duties, Lindsey has been effective. Lindsey likes to throw the ball upfield. Either through play-action or straight drops, when Stidham has not been under pressure, he has been quite effective.

Stop the run and stop the Tigers

Even with the passing success of Lindsey/Stiddam, Auburn is close to two-to-one, run-to-pass ratio. Stidham’s passing efficiency also takes a deep dive when he is under pressure. Bottom line, the Tigers are still run-heavy and when they must pass, they are much less effective. Stop the run and you stop the Tigers.

We have stats to back up our argument. In the Malzahn era, the Tigers have lost 18 games. Fourteen of those losses have come when Auburn has rushed for less than 237 yards and less than 4.45 yards-per-carry. In those 14 losses, Auburn averaged only 144.2 yards-per-game and 3.31 yards-per-carry.

Against a top defense in the last two Iron Bowls and the 2016 and 2017 Clemson games, the Tigers rush stats are anemic. In those four games, the Auburn rushing attack has averaged 70.5 yards-per-game and 1.79 yards-per-carry.

As Auburn head coach, Gus Malzahn has lost three of four games to Alabama football. In those three losses, Auburn averaged 110.3 yards on the ground and only 2.9 yards-per-carry.

One point of caution. Auburn’s pathetic offense in the 2017 Clemson game is not the Tigers’ Iron Bowl offense. The Auburn offense is much improved.

Failure to stop Gus’ run game leads to losses

In Gus’ one win over the Tide as head coach, the Tigers gained 296 rushing yards with an average of 5.7 yards-per-carry. The 2013 Alabama football loss to Auburn is remembered nationally by the Kick-Six touchdown. That touchdown was the game-winner for the Tigers but the other four Auburn TD’s were driven by the Tigers’ rushing offense.

After injury attrition, is the 2017 Tide a top rushing defense?

The short and easy answer to the above question is we don’t know. Alabama football does not have his standard defensive front-seven depth. It is hard to imagine any team not being severely damaged by the loss of four and its top six linebackers.

The 144 yards surrendered to Colorado State early in the season was troubling. More recently, 151 and 172 yards against LSU and Mississippi State is not equal to the Tide’s high standard. Still, as Nick Saban pointed out, even in those games the yards-per-carry average was only about 3.5 yards.

As good as Dylan Moses played in the Mercer game, he is not yet equal to Shaun Dion Hamilton or Mack Wilson. After LaBryan Ray’s injury, the defensive line is down to Payne, Buggs, Hand, Davis, Williams and Frazier. That group could tire late in Auburn.

Getting Christian Miller back (not yet confirmed) for situational use against Auburn would help. In addition to controlling the run game, the Tide defense needs to put Stidham under pressure. Miller and Rashaan Evans can do that. Dylan Moses does have the speed to play from sideline to sideline which could negate some of Auburn’s running plays.

Best Crimson Tide defensive weapon

Perhaps the Tide’s best defensive weapon could become time-consuming possessions by the Crimson offense. The Tide’s defensive depth may not be an issue if the defense does not have to play 75 or more snaps. Auburn only ran 70 offensive plays in the loss to LSU.

It is too early in Iron Bowl week to offer a game prediction, other than this – if the Tide stuffs the Tigers run game, the Tide will prevail.

Next: Relive the exciting 2014 Iron Bowl.

The best rivalry in college football is less than a week away. We will follow everything leading up to the 82nd Iron Bowl.