As expected both the AP and Coaches polls downrated Alabama football after the Auburn loss. What are the Tide’s chances for a CFB Playoff slot?
Alabama football dropped to No. 5 in both major polls after losing to Auburn. The top six positions were identical in both polls: Clemson at No. 1, followed by Oklahoma; Wisconsin; Auburn; Alabama and Georgia.
The highest ranked team beaten by Alabama football is LSU at No. 16 in the Coaches Poll and No. 17 in the AP Poll. Mississippi State, after losing the Egg Bowl to Ole Miss, fell to No. 24 in both polls. Another team vanquished by the Tide is Fresno State who made the AP Poll at No. 25. The Bulldogs are the first team outside the Top 25 in the Coaches Poll.
It is sad commentary for Alabama football fans that we look to the polls for meaning this late in the season. The only ranking that truly matters in the CFB Playoff rankings. The CFB Playoff will issue its next to last ranking on Tuesday and its final determinative ranking on Sunday, December 3rd.
Can Alabama football make the CFB Playoff field?
Even with the Tide sidelined, there is football yet to be played. Seven of the remaining eight teams in CFB Playoff contention will play on Saturday. Three of them will lose because of head-to-head games.
What every Alabama football wants to know is how many losses will it take (and by whom) to secure the Tide a Playoff berth. Dozens of self-anointed experts will state they have a clear answer. None of them know. Nor do we. Only the committee knows or will know in the coming days.
Media ‘experts’ give the Tide little chance and they may be correct. A close loss to Auburn could have been overlooked but the Tide did not pass the eye-ball test against the Tigers.
We can be confident of a few future committee decisions. Last week’s No. 2 Clemson beats Miami and they are in. Oklahoma (No. 4 last week) beats TCU and the Sooners are in. Undefeated Wisconsin beat Ohio State in the B1G title game and the Badgers are in. The winner of the Auburn and Georgia SEC championship game can be assured of a slot.
Who the Tide needs to lose
So the Tide needs losses, maybe even carnage level losses. Oklahoma losing to TCU would help Alabama football chances the most. A Clemson loss might knock the Tigers out but could also bump Miami back into the final four. A Wisconsin loss might end the Badgers’ chances but could boost a two-loss Ohio State over Alabama.
FiveThirtyEight.com, who uses ELO rating data, gives the Tide a good chance of making the field if Oklahoma loses to TCU. If Oklahoma wins and either Wisconsin or Clemson lose, Alabama football might still make the field but the model gives both Ohio State and Miami an edge over Alabama.
On Tuesday night, more than just where the Tide is ranked will be important. The committee’s comments on their reasoning about certain teams becomes a ‘tell’ of how the final rankings may be decided.
Next: Tide shines in 30-22 run playing with only three against five-man Gophers
One thing to remember about the CFB Playoff is one of its core purposes. The creation of a four-team field was to a degree a backlash against two SEC teams playing for a national championship in 2012. Why would a two-loss Ohio State team make the field ahead of Alabama? The answer is no two teams from the same conference.