Alabama Football: Two low profile teams may determine Tide’s Playoff fate
By Ronald Evans
It has been an odd season for Alabama football. FSU’s surprise slide and three games involving Group of Five teams may determine the Tide’s Playoff future.
As Alabama football fans hold our collective breath, sweating the final CFB Playoff selection, let’s look back at two teams and three games that may save or destroy the Tide’s chances.
The CFB Playoff committee chairs have stock answers about the selection process. Always cited in defining the process by which the committee chooses ‘the four best teams’ are: win-loss records including quality wins and bad losses; the Strength of Schedule (SOS); conference championships; head-to-head if applicable AND the reviews of games done throughout the season by individual committee members and collectively on the last weekend.
Remember every criterion in the paragraph above is only an aid to the committee’s final decision. The decision process is by design vague to afford the committee options in choosing the best four teams each season.
Tom Fornelli writing for CBS Sports describes the vagueness well,
"The way things are set up, where the guidelines are flexible and the explanations for choices contradictory, there isn’t any real requirement. The only requirement is that “the committee thinks you’re good.”"
How much Is the committee influenced by precedent?
It is not known how much precedent matters to the committee. Precedent could affect the selection of this season’s fourth team and if it does, Alabama football should benefit.
Last season’s decision to include a one-loss, non-conference champion over a conference champion (Ohio State over Penn State) could help the Tide this season. Ohio State made last year’s Playoff field after losing to B1G Ten champion Penn State in the regular season. The committee spurned the Nittany Lions who had a 39 point loss to Michigan.
Based on precedent Ohio State would not be chosen over Alabama this season because it wins a conference championship by beating Wisconsin. Another precedent would also damage Ohio State’s chances. No team with two losses has ever made the final four.
If the Sooners win and it comes down to the Tide and the Buckeyes
Assuming precedent is viewed as optional by the committee, what else favors the Tide over a B1G Ten champion Buckeyes? The glaring difference between the two teams is bad losses. The Tide has none. The Buckeyes gave up 55 points and lost by 31 to a five-loss Iowa team.
The committee’s apparent reluctance to acknowledge separation between the Tide and Miami, Georgia and Ohio State is based on SOS. With FSU’s implosion after the opening game, the Tide’s resume does not benefit from a win against a Top 10 team. If the Buckeyes beat the Badgers, the best the Tide can hope for is matching them with a 3-1 record against the Top 25. Plus the Tide’s wins are against lower-ranked teams.
The almost bizarre impact of Troy and Fresno State
If TCU does not beat Oklahoma, the go, no-go point for Alabama football may come down to two lesser considered teams and three games. Those teams are Troy and Fresno State. Had LSU not lost to Troy, the Tigers would be a Top 10 team. A win over a Top 10 team would have greatly strengthened the Tide’s Playoff position.
The Alabama football win over Fresno State, currently ranked No. 25, is helping the Tide. That could change Saturday in the MWC championship when Fresno State plays Boise State on the blue field. The Bulldogs beat Boise State in Fresno earlier in the season but are eight-point underdogs Saturday. A Fresno State loss will damage the Tide’s chances.
As bizarre as it may seem, in a close committee vote, the Troy Trojans and the Fresno State Bulldogs may cost Alabama football a CFB Playoff berth.
Next: The Best Championship Games in Tide Football History
One more morsel for Alabama football fans, compliments of ESPN’s Peter Burns. In three years of CFB Playoff teams, the worst regular season loss by any participant was 14 points. Ohio State’s two losses this season were by 15 and 31 points.