Alabama Football: Does defense still win championships?

Alabama football is a storied college football program known for championships most often won by the best defenses in college football.

For almost the entire history of college football, particularly among southern teams, the belief has been that defense wins championships. In no program has that been more true than Alabama football.

The mantra ‘defense wins championships’ was an explanation for the hypothesis that while explosive offenses win many games, championships are determined by top defenses. Football continues to evolve and late 20th century and 21st century offenses are more potent than their historical predecessors. So potent in fact, that defense has ceased to dominate in championship games.

The stingy defenses that led Alabama to championships in 2009, 2011 and 2012 may be nearing extinction. The last four CFB National Champions have given up an average of 29.25 points in their victories. Four championship games is a trend but a better review is to look back at the last 10 national championship contests.

To review the last 10 championship games we began with the defensive stats for each team. Brian Freneau of Football Outsiders publishes the Freneau Efficiency Index. The Defensive Freneau Efficiency Index is defined as the “value generated per opponent drive adjusted for starting field position and opponent offenses faced.” We cannot claim to fully understand the calculations but the FEI is well respected.

In the last ten national championship games, the team with the higher Defensive FEI (DFEI) won seven times. However, in four of those seven games, the winner and the loser had comparable DFEI rankings.  Also in three of the games, lower ranked DFEI teams won championships. Let’s look at some specifics.

• In 2007, Ohio State had the No. 1 DFEI and lost to LSU whose DFEI was No. 14
• In 2010, Auburn had the No. 35 DFEI but beat Oregon whose DFEI was No. 5
• In 2016, Alabama had a DFEI rating of No.1 and lost to Clemson whose rating was No. 9

Those are strong examples that defense no longer wins championships. Let’s also compare point production

• In 2007, Ohio State and its No. 1 DFEI gave up 38 points in its loss to LSU.
• In 2009, Texas with a No. 3 DFEI gave up 37 points while losing to Alabama.
• In 2011, LSU was rated No. 2 DFEI and gave up 21 points to Alabama.
• In 2015, Clemson’s No. 5 DFEI gave up 40 points to Alabama.
• In 2016, Alabama with No. 1 DFEI gave up 35 points to Clemson.

In some of the games, special teams points distort the actual points surrendered by a defense. Nonetheless, take away the three Crimson Tide national championships and defense had less impact than offense.

In the upcoming Alabama football and Clemson semi-final, both teams have top defenses. Based on the DFEI, Alabama football is No. 5 and Clemson is No. 2. The No. 1 rated defense, Wisconsin is not even in the Playoff field.

This review of the last 10 championship games does not indicate defense is not important. Eight of the ten championship winners had DFEI ratings in the Top 10 and six of the winners were in the Top Five. Defense may no longer win championships but winning one without a top defense is rare.

Next: 50 Best Alabama Football Players of All-Time

Pundits are predicting a defensive battle for Alabama football and Clemson. Based on current trends, a defensive battle is defined as when neither team scores in the 30’s. For a bit of historical perspective, the Tide’s 1961 team gave up 25 points during the entire season.