Alabama football under Nick Saban has always sought a balance between rushing and passing production. Balance against Clemson will require hitting some long passes.
Poll any group of Alabama football fans and the number one reason cited for the Auburn loss was not enough carries by the running backs. In a hypothetical of what is most needed to beat Clemson, a poll would also say more carries by the running backs. Even if the Auburn conclusion is valid, does it mean the Clemson presumption is also valid? Let’s look at some numbers and how they apply to the Clemson game.
Alabama football fans expect Clemson to load the box in an attempt to stop the Tide’s rushing attack. At some number, those ‘loads’ are almost assured to be effective. Dedicate eight or nine defenders to the box and the running game of any team will struggle. Clemson’s defensive tackles, Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins may require some double-teams by the Tide. If so, seven blockers cannot handle eight defenders.
ICYMI: Two key matchups against Clemson.
As much as Alabama football fans believe Damien Harris, Bo Scarbrough and Josh Jacobs can gash the Tigers, Clemson coaches will be determined to negate that threat. Loading the defensive box leaves much open space downfield, thereby making a defense vulnerable to long passes.
Mississippi State took that risk against Alabama and added to it a preponderance of blitz packages. It almost worked. It did not work because Jaeln Hurts passed for 242 yards. More important than total passing yards are two other numbers. Against the Bulldogs, the average yards-per-completion were 24.2 and 12.7 was the per-attempt average.
A deep dive into passing stats
For those thinking such stats don’t matter, consider this. Jalen Hurts has two losses in his Crimson Tide career. He was 13-for-23 for 103 yards against Auburn and 14-for-32 for 155 yards against Clemson last season. Those are not good stats and why they occurred has been the focus of considerable Alabama football fan discontent.
The lack of passing success in the two losses resulted from poor performance by Jalen and mistakes in pass protection by the offensive line. A few wide receiver drops also contributed. The lack of total yards gained is amplified by two more passing stats.
All stats in this post are from rolltide.com
In both losses, the average yards gained per passing attempt was less than five yards. Against Auburn, that number was 4.5 yards. Last year against Clemson the number was 4.84 yards. Additionally, the yards per-completion numbers were far below the 24.2 achieved against Mississippi State. For the Auburn game, the average yards-per-completion were 7.9 and 11.07 against Clemson last season.
It is reasonable to conclude the way to beat a loaded defensive box is to throw over the top of it. For any skeptical fans, think back to the 2011 season. In Tuscaloosa, LSU sold out to stop the run. The Tide lost 9-6. In the national championship game, Alabama loosened up the Bengal Tigers defense with early passing.
Due to a spectacular defensive performance by the 2011 Tide, not much passing was needed. The 2017 Crimson Tide defense is not on par with the 2011 Tide defense. The Clemson game may not be high-scoring but given 31 points was not enough last season, the Tide offense must be productive against Clemson this season.
Alabama football fans are correct the Tide must run to beat Clemson. In order to run, it may have to first pass.
Next: 50 Best Alabama Football Players of All-Time
As part of the run-up to the big game, Bama Hammer will keep our readers apprised of any and all developments. Check in with us often.