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Alabama Basketball: NCAA ‘Bracket Watch’ and SEC stretch run

By Ronald Evans

EUGENE, OR - DECEMBER 11: Head coach Avery Johnson of the Alabama Crimson Tide signals to his bench during the first half of the game against the Oregon Ducks at Matthew Knight Arena on December 11, 2016 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)
EUGENE, OR - DECEMBER 11: Head coach Avery Johnson of the Alabama Crimson Tide signals to his bench during the first half of the game against the Oregon Ducks at Matthew Knight Arena on December 11, 2016 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images) /
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A review of where Alabama basketball stands in projected NCAA Brackets and the challenge of eight more regular season games against potential NCAA tourney teams.

Six weeks out from Selection Sunday Alabama basketball is solidly in projected NCAA Tournament brackets. Main ‘Bracketologists’, Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm both have the Tide projected as a No. 9 seed.

Many Alabama basketball fans are sure Saturday’s win over Oklahoma guarantees the Tide will ‘Dance’ in 2018. The win was huge and it was a major boost in NCAA Tournament viability. Nonetheless, the Tide is not an NCAA ‘lock’ yet. There are two reasons why. Alabama basketball has 10 remaining regular season games, plus SEC tournament games. The NCAA Selection committee chooses teams based on several key factors. One significant factor is a team’s most recent games.

In the remaining 10 SEC games, the Tide has eight games against currently projected NCAA teams. A 6-4 run and 1-1 in the SEC tournament should be enough. Even 5-5 and 1-1 might be enough to sneak in at a No. 11 or No. 12 seed. If the Tide closes 4-6 and 1-1, it may again miss out on the NCAA tourney.

A closer look at current bracket projections

Joe Lunardi has seven SEC teams in the NCAA field, with three more SEC schools as Bubble teams.

  • No. 2 Seed – Auburn
  • No. 4 Seed – Tennessee
  • No. 5 Seed – Kentucky
  • No. 5 Seed – Florida
  • No. 9 Seed – Alabama
  • No. 9 Seed – Arkansas
  • No. 11 Seed – Texas A&M
  • First Four Out – Missouri
  • Next Four Out – South Carolina and Georgia

Jerry Palm has six SEC teams in the NCAA field and three SEC Bubble teams.

  • No. 2 Seed – Auburn
  • No. 3 Seed – Tennessee
  • No. 4 Seed – Kentucky
  • No. 4 Seed – Florida
  • No. 8 Seed – Arkansas
  • No. 9 Seed – Alabama
  • First Four Out – Missouri, Texas A&M, South Carolina

There are many other, lesser-known Bracketologists and some of them are as accurate (or better) than Lunardi and Palm. Bracketmatrix.com collects dozens of them and averages their selections. That average currently has Alabama basketball as a No. 10 seed. Teamrankings.com also has the Tide as a No. 10 seed with a 72 percent probability for making the NCAA Tournament.

Finishing 6-4 in the regular season

Alabama basketball has a tough closing run in SEC regular season play. Gaining six wins will be difficult but it is achievable. Take a closer look at the ten games.

  • Jan. 31st – Missouri in Tuscaloosa; RPI – 46
  • Feb. 3rd – Florida in Gainsville; RPI – 36
  • Feb. 6th – Mississippi in Starkville; RPI – 70
  • Feb. 10th – Tennessee in Tuscaloosa; RPI – 13
  • Feb. 13th – LSU in Tuscaloosa; RPI – 81
  • Feb. 17th – Kentucky in Lexington; RPI – 12
  • Feb. 21st – Auburn in Auburn; RPI – 6
  • Feb. 24th – Arkansas in Tuscaloosa; RPI – 21
  • Feb. 27th – Florida in Tuscaloosa; RPI – 36
  • Mar. 3rd – Texas A&M in College Station; RPI – 37

The current RPI for Alabama basketball is 29. As a point of reference, Oklahoma is a consistently projected No. 3 seed with a RPI of 10.

Next: Six reasons the Tide beat OU

New ‘Bracket Watch’ posts will follow with increasing frequency as the regular season progresses. The other side of the upcoming 10 game challenge is opportunity. If some of six (or more) wins come against Top 25 RPI teams, The Tide could vault itself to No. 7 seed or higher.

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