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Alabama Basketball: Feb. 26th NCAA ‘Bracket Watch’

By Ronald Evans

TUCSON, AZ - DECEMBER 09: Head coach Avery Johnson of the Alabama Crimson Tide reacts during the first half of the college basketball game against the Arizona Wildcats at McKale Center on December 9, 2017 in Tucson, Arizona. The Wildcats defeated the Crimson Tide 88-82. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
TUCSON, AZ - DECEMBER 09: Head coach Avery Johnson of the Alabama Crimson Tide reacts during the first half of the college basketball game against the Arizona Wildcats at McKale Center on December 9, 2017 in Tucson, Arizona. The Wildcats defeated the Crimson Tide 88-82. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /
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Check out where Alabama basketball stands in projected NCAA Brackets after the Arkansas loss, plus the NCAA chances for other SEC teams.

In our last report, we voiced concern about a late-season collapse. Alabama basketball is one loss away from just that. A loss to Florida Tuesday night could be redeemed by an unlikely win in College Station. But, the probability of beating the Aggies on the road is roughly 30 percent.

If Alabama basketball loses to the Gators and the Aggies, it will need a minimum of three SEC Tournament wins to make the NCAA field. Looking at the bracket projections below it appears the Tide is in a somewhat stronger position. There are two problems with a more optimistic perspective. It is uncommon for a 14 loss team to get an NCAA bid. Lose the next two and anything but winning the SEC Tournament gives the Tide 15 losses.

There is another problem. Per Jerry Palm, over the past 25 seasons, no team below four wins over .500 has made the NCAA Tournament. Drop the next two and go 2-1 in the SEC Tournament and the Tide would be 19-15. That is on the edge of ‘First Four Out’ territory.

If Palm is more correct than Lunardi, Florida is also in a precarious position. The Gators close their regular season with Kentucky and like the Tide losing two more would be crippling for NCAA Tourney chances.

A closer look at current bracket projections

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has eight SEC teams in the NCAA field and one SEC team, Mississippi State clinging to the edge of the bubble.

  • No. 3 Seed – Auburn
  • No. 3 Seed – Tennessee
  • No. 5 Seed – Kentucky
  • No. 6 Seed – Florida
  • No. 7 Seed – Texas A&M
  • No. 8 Seed – Arkansas
  • No. 9 Seed – Missouri
  • No. 9 Seed – Alabama
  • First Four Out – Mississippi State

Jerry Palm has eight SEC teams in the NCAA field.

  • No. 2 Seed – Auburn
  • No. 3 Seed – Tennessee
  • No. 5 Seed – Kentucky
  • No. 7 Seed – Arkansas
  • No. 8 Seed – Texas A&M
  • No. 10 Seed – Missouri
  • No. 11 Seed – Alabama
  • No. 10 Seed – Florida

Teamrankings.com has the Tide a No. 10 seed after the Arkansas loss. The projected probability for the Tide making the NCAA Tournament field decreased from 81 percent to 66 percent.

SEC  teams and RPI

The list below is the current RPI for each SEC team in the NCAA Tournament conversation, from live-rpi.com.

  • Auburn – 7
  • Tennessee – 12
  • Kentucky – 16
  • Texas A&M – 26
  • Arkansas – 30
  • Alabama – 40
  • Missouri – 43
  • Florida – 56
  • Mississippi State – 63

Next: 'Never too early' 2018 Offense Depth Chart

We will continue our ‘Bracket Watch’ after a Tide win over Florida. With a loss, we may be forced to rename our future reports ‘Bubble Watch.’

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