Much will happen in CFB before late November, but for Alabama football, winning the Iron Bowl appears a requirement for making the CFB Playoff.
Though several months away, fans are already wondering what it will take to make the 2018 Playoff field. Alabama football is in a different situation than last season, with a schedule, at least on paper, not as Playoff-enhancing.
Alabama football fans relish knowing the result of the 2017 Iron Bowl meant nothing to a national championship quest. We should not count on that happening in 2018. A one-loss Crimson Tide, not playing in the 2018 SEC championship game, may not make the final four.
There are two reasons why 2018 might be different from 2017. Most Playoff experts believe the committee gave the Tide credit for a quality win against FSU. FSU tanking after the Francois injury did not damage the Playoff chances for Alabama football. The Tide got credit for wins against No. 3 (FSU), No. 19 (LSU) and No. 18 ( Mississippi State) before the loss to No. 6 ranked Auburn.
Louisville will not be ranked on September 1st and there is little enthusiasm for LSU being a ranked team in 2018. Mississippi State, somewhere in the bottom 10 of the top 25, may be the Tide’s only ranked win heading into the Iron Bowl.
A win over a top 10 ranked Auburn team and being undefeated going into the SEC Championship game might be enough to make the Playoff field. If the Tide lost the 2018 SEC Championship game against a top 10 team, it could still make the Playoff field. Make note of could, rather than would in the previous sentence.
Pick the Four Best Teams
Last season, the committee stayed true to its purpose, picking who it thought were the four best teams. It took a lot of heat for not giving more credit to a conference championship. How likely is the committee to maintain the same resolve in 2018? Not as likely, if the result again denies a Playoff berth to two Power Five conference champions?
After getting into every CFB Playoff field, Alabama football fans are generally confident in the committee. But, lose to Auburn in the Iron Bowl and the Crimson Tide may not have the body of work necessary to prove it is one of the four best teams.
The worst case scenario would be for both LSU and Mississippi State to falter and not be ranked in November. In that case, the Tide might need to beat Auburn and win the SEC Championship game to make the final four.
Of course, this discussion is premature. No one can foresee what the 2018 season will bring. It is way too early for undue worry.
Next: How probable is an undefeated run in 2018?
If the scenarios discussed above deserve notice, add a wrinkle to them. Many Alabama football fans will be rooting for Washington to beat Auburn in week one. But an Aubie win could help the Tide at the end of the season. Despite that, add us to a chorus of Go Huskies!