The presumed weakest link for Alabama football is few returning starters on defense. Game experience by non-starters is a more accurate measurement.
Identifying Alabama football weaknesses in 2018 focuses on the defense. In terms of players who started at least half the 2017 games, there are only two: Isaiah Buggs with 13 starts and Anfernee Jennings with 11 starts. Add Raekwon Davis, who started six games, to the count and the Crimson Tide will have eight new starters on defense in 2018. Considering the extra defensive backs used in nickel and dime and the new defensive starters for 2018 is nine or ten.
On paper, the starter depletion indicates Alabama football will have a very inexperienced defense in 2018. By this measurement, Alabama football returns fewer defensive starters than any other SEC team.
Alabama football routinely rotates 16 or more players on defense. Lots of non-starters have significant game experience. The college football expert, Phil Steele does the best job of calculating returning talent for every team in the nation. Steele does a calculation based on returning Lettermen, seniors and percentages of yards gained, tackles made and offensive line continuity. The result is a detailed Experience Chart well worth the price of his annual book.
Based on Steele’s calculation in the category of returning tackles, Alabama football returns less than any team in the SEC. Only a handful of teams in all the FBS return a smaller percentage of last season’s tackle producers than Alabama football. Viewing Steele’s Experience Chart is even more sobering than considering returning only three starters.
The situation is not as bad as it seems
Having more experienced players is almost always better than fewer experienced players. The injury situation on defense last season should be considered. Alabama football had several top defensive players miss many games in 2018. Christian Miller and Terrell Lewis are just two examples. Had they and others been able to play more in 2017, the returning tackles number would not look so dire for the 2018 Crimson Tide.
Alabama football may have real depth concerns at inside linebacker and in the secondary. It does not have insufficient roster talent on the defensive side of the ball.
Another point is important. When teams recruit at the highest level, as does Alabama football, many young players can contribute in their freshman seasons. The comeback against Georgia was in part accomplished by six true freshmen on offense. The 2018 Alabama Crimson Tide roster has new players who can contribute defensively. Freshmen Patrick Surtain Jr., Eyabi Anoma, Christian Barmore and Tevita Musika (JUCO) should see much more than special teams action.
Taking another cue from Phil Steele, the overall team experience numbers are not low. Looking at four seasons of Steele’s Experience Charts, 2015-2018, Alabama football rates much higher in 2018 than it did in 2015, 2016 or 2017.
Next: Depth is Key for '18 Defense
Something else to remember for the 2018 season is the early favorable schedule. Less experienced defenders will have the advantage of a potent Tide offense overmatching early season defensive opponents.