From the perspective of Alabama football fans, past CFB Playoff selections were not controversial. Many other fans disagree and the committee’s next final four could become the most controversial of all.
SEC media members have once again picked Alabama football to win the SEC. The vote was no surprise. Although Georgia was picked to win the SEC East, probably not many media members are picking two SEC teams in the next CFB Playoff.
In fact, the CFB Playoff Selection Committee could be in for a disaster scenario next December. That is if the ESPN FPI is correct.
Add us to the chorus of past detractors of the FPI. We admit our criticisms should have included all the computer algorithms as prognostication tools. It is not that the models are flawed. They are all reasonably accurate across the landscape of a full season of FBS games.
ESPN’s secret formula is actually one of the best. The model does reasonably well in predicting individual games when one team is favored at 71 percent or higher. Below that it becomes less accurate as the percentage drops down to a 50-50 call. Last season the FPI was correct 79 percent of the time in games where the favorite was projected to have a 71-80 percent probability to win. When the favorite had a 50-60 percent win probability, the FPI was correct in only 53 percent of games.
In fairness to ESPN, the data above reinforces the strength of the model’s formula. The FPI gets panned so often by fans because it is little better than a coin-flip in picking a winner between two top teams.
What if the FPI is accurate in picking 2018 undefeated teams?
There is no model capable of factoring the vagaries of chance. The 2015, Arkansas 4th-and-25, pass and lateral miracle that salvaged a win over Ole Miss is one example. No Arkansas miracle would have meant no SEC championship game and probably no national championship game for Alabama football.
But what if an annual tweak or two improves the predictive success of the FPI? What if the vagaries of chance fall on the side of more than four of the top teams at the end of the regular season? What if, as the latest FPI projects, eight Power Five teams are undefeated at the end of the regular season?
Of course, we all know there will never be eight undefeated Power Five teams. The odds of such probability are so low, why bother to consider the scenario? Because the odds would not be zero.
What is improbable but not impossible
The current FPI model shows eight teams favored in all 12 regular season games.
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Georgia
- Miami
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- Oklahoma
- Washington
Two of the four would drop out of the Playoff picture in the SEC and ACC championship games. Notre Dame does not play in a championship game. If Oklahoma, Washington and Ohio State won their conference titles, there would be six undefeated teams.
Because all would be undefeated, head-to-head comparison by the Selection Committee would not apply. The committee would be left with schedule strength (SOS) and their eye-ball tests to choose ‘the best four teams.’ In the end, two undefeated Power Five teams might get booted from the Playoff.
For the committee, a worst case scenario would be deciding the SEC, ACC, Pac 12 champions and Notre Dame were the four best. The college football world would be staggered by an avalanche of complaints from the Big 12 and the Big Ten.
There is another worst case scenario
The worst case scenario for Alabama football fans is an undefeated season with a weak SOS. The Crimson Tide will start out good but not great in SOS. The FPI has Alabama football at No. 28. If any two of LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M and Mississippi State were to have worse than projected seasons, the Tide’s SOS could take a big hit.
It is almost impossible to imagine an undefeated SEC Champion not making a Playoff field. It seems even less likely than eight Power Five teams going undefeated in the regular season.
For Alabama football fans, there is no real reason for anxiety. The Selection Committee, however, might be rooting for some upsets in November. The fastest way to an eight-team Playoff is having multiple undefeated, Power Five conference champions not selected for the final four.
Next: 30 Great Tide Players who were 3-Star Recruits
There is no magic number for the CFB Playoff. Four has been enough for Alabama football fans. The first time the Tide is perceived to be unjustifiably not selected, we will clamor for an expansion to six or eight teams.