Alabama football could explode against Louisville or settle for a workman-like, victory margin in the teens. On paper, the game is a total mismatch.
Between now and opening night of the Alabama football season, we will review every regular season opponent in detail. In the week or two leading up to each game, we will analyze the latest scoop on each team. A day or two before each game, our Bama Hammer group will offer game predictions.
As we begin an in-depth research of the September opponents, what quickly jumps out about Louisville is the on-paper mismatch. Looking at the two teams by position groups, the Cardinals are so out-matched it is little wonder the current odds reflect a three-plus touchdown Crimson Tide victory.
Going back to the 2012 season, Alabama football has sought a challenging game for the season opener. When each game was scheduled (including Louisville) the opponent seemed to be a future tough team. That plan did not work with USC in 2016 and it appears to have failed with Louisville in 2018. Some predictions have the Cardinals finishing 2018 as low as sixth in the ACC Atlantic division. Louisville could easily lose five games in 2018.
Suspension of Belief
At ACC Media Days, Louisville head coach, Bobby Petrino said the most important thing for his team in facing Alabama football is belief. As in “belief” by the Louisville players in themselves.
"The No.1 thing we have to do is believe that we can go down there and beat them … If there’s any disbelief at all, usually you underachieve and that’s the main thing we cannot do"
There is an old story-telling term called ‘suspension of belief’ that could apply to Petrino’s comments. Generally, it means accepting as believable what normally would be seen as incredible. The Cardinals are going to need considerable ‘suspension of belief’ in Orlando.
Based on multiple opinions of college football experts, including Phil Steele, we have projected the advantages/disadvantages for Alabama football against Louisville.
Who holds the position group advantages?
We break the advantages into three levels with the greatest advantage labeled Huge Advantage. Working down, we also use Clear Advantage and at the least level, Some Advantage.
- Quarterback – Alabama – Huge Advantage
- Running Back – Alabama – Huge Advantage
- Wide Receiver – Louisville – Some Advantage
- Offensive Line – Alabama – Clear Advantage
- Defensive line – Alabama – Huge Advantage
- Linebackers – Alabama – Huge Advantage
- Secondary – Alabama – Clear Advantage
- Special Teams – Louisville – Some Advantage
Certainly, our review paints a picture with a wide brush. Leading up to the game, we will provide details about each position group in later posts. For now, the game appears to be one where Alabama football can pick the score. Nick Saban does not like to run up scores. The outcome may have a respectable margin, particularly if Nick chooses to keep the game plans simple.
None of us know who will start at QB for the Tide. Alabama football can win the game with either one. We don’t expect to see a fully unleashed Tua. What would be the point of giving Ole Miss and Jimbo a clear, early look?
Good luck to Bobby P on that ‘belief’ thing. Alabama football excels at making other teams quit, even when doing so methodically.
Next: 25 Greatest Games in Saban Era
Another big recruiting push will be made starting this weekend. The second Champions Cookout of the summer takes place on July 28 and one or two new commits could be added.