The latest AP preseason poll has Alabama football No.1. How accurate is the preseason AP Poll and how far off are its biggest misses?
Ho-hum right? Alabama football is ranked No. 1 in the preseason AP Poll. The rest of the Top Ten are Clemson, Georgia, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Washington, Oklahoma, Miami, Auburn and Penn State.
The SEC and the B1G each had five teams selected in the Top 25. The other three Power Five conferences each had four teams selected. The full Top 25 list of teams is available here.
How the poll works is 61 writers and broadcasters from across the nation vote on the teams. The poll goes back to 1936 but the Top 25 was not implemented until 1950.
Alabama football dominated the first-place votes with 42, followed by Clemson with 18 and Wisconsin with one first-place vote. The overall point gap between Alabama and Clemson was not huge, 1,505 to 1,476.
Fans of the B1G will undoubtedly crow about the conference having the most top 15 teams, with five. The four SEC teams joining Alabama football in the poll are Georgia at No. 3; Auburn at No. 9; Mississippi State at No. 18 and LSU at No. 25.
How accurate is the AP Preseason Poll?
More precisely, how well does the preseason poll indicate where teams will finish at season’s end? Realistically, accuracy of the poll should not be expected, especially in the bottom half of teams. There are just too many variables over the course of a season, injuries being the biggest factor. Florida State is the most recent example. Last season, the Seminoles were ranked No. 3 in the preseason and finished unranked at 7-6.
Over the past five seasons, FSU and eight other teams were ranked in the top ten in the preseason and finished unranked. In 2013 it was Texas preseason ranked at No. 9 and Georgia, ranked No. 4. Georgia’s 8-3, 2013 season including a loss to Vanderbilt.
Oklahoma went into 2014 ranked No. 4 and dropped out of the poll with an 8-5 record after losing a bowl game to Clemson 40-6. In 2014, South Carolina started at No. 9 and finished the season with a 7-6 record.
The 2015 season was particularly tough for preseason top ten teams. Auburn, Georgia and USC debuted at Nos. 7, 8 and 9. Auburn finished 7-6; Georgia was 10-3 but unranked in the final poll. USC had a bizarre season, making the PAC 12 championship game but finishing unranked with an 8-6 record.
In 2016, Notre Dame was preseason No. 10 and limped to a final 4-8 record.
Most frequently overrated teams
In the last five seasons, three teams have most frequently been preseason ranked in the top 17 teams and unranked in the final polls. Georgia in 2013, 2015 and 2016. Texas in 2013, 2014 and 2017. Nebraska in 2013, 2014 and 2016.
Finally, how good is the AP Preseason Poll? At predicting how teams will finish, it is not so good. For entertainment purposes, it remains the gold standard. Besides, how bad can a poll be that picks the Alabama Crimson Tide Number One?
Who plummets first among SEC teams? LSU and Auburn can drop in week one of the new college football season.