Alabama football opens the season against Louisville with both teams facing unknowns. Let’s consider how three of those unknowns may play out.
Almost no one in the college football world believes Louisville will seriously challenge Alabama football. Even with the game predicted to be one-sided, the Crimson Tide will challenge itself to play up to a standard.
For the Tide, the Louisville game might be best considered an opportunity to continue a work-in-progress. Alabama football has an unusually high number of unknowns going into the 2018 season. To the extent those unknowns become deficiencies, those deficiencies will not be cured in one game.
There are three unknown areas where inexperience suggests results will be below the high Crimson Tide standard. Those three areas are the defensive secondary; the punting game and the performance of the Tide’s new offensive and defensive coordinators.
The secondary against Louisville
At ACC Media Days, Louisville receiver Dez Fitzpatrick said,
"Every receiver in our receiving core can beat every one of their DB’s in one on one coverage. I feel like just straight talent-wise, we have the upper edge"
Not only is Fitzgerald entitled to his opinion, on paper he is correct. The Cardinals top three receivers caught 147 passes last season for 20 touchdowns. On paper, the Tide’s counter of defensive statistics can only include Shyheim Carter and Deionte Thompson, neither of whom were regulars last season.
The Louisville receivers are also big. Jaylen Smith, Seth Dawkins and Dez Fitzpatrick are 6-foot-4, 6-foot-3 and 6-foot-2, respectively. Additionally, Louisville has three tight ends, two of whom are 6-foot-4 and another at 6-foot-6. The Cardinals will have size advantages.
Still, Fitzgerald giving Alabama football bulletin board material was unwise. The inexperienced Crimson Tide secondary will look to let play on the field make a counter statement.
The best Tide pass defense against Louisville will be an unrelenting pass rush against the inexperienced Louisville QB, Jawon Pass. ‘Puma’ as Pass is known has only thrown 33 passes in college games. He is a big guy at 6-feet-4 and 232 pounds. He has a big arm as well.
The Coordinator Unknowns
Both teams have coordinator unknowns, though, in Louisville’s case, it has nothing to do with experience as a coordinator. Louisville is the sixth FBS school where Brian VanGorder has been defensive coordinator. He has also coached for three NFL teams, including four seasons as the Atlanta Falcons DC. He has changed jobs frequently in his almost thirty-year coaching career. He does not have a reputation for making his defenses better.
That does not bode well for Louisville. The best that can be said about Petrino’s recent Louisville defenses is they have been mediocre.
On the Alabama football side, new OC Mike Locksley has eight seasons experience in the role at Illinois and Maryland. He was also a head coach at New Mexico and an interim head coach at Maryland. Even with his experience, calling plays for the Alabama football offense will be new for Locksley. The Tide OC job is both easy and tough. It is easy because of the abundance of talent. It is hard because of expectations, from fans and Nick Saban.
On the Tide defensive side, DC Tosh Lupoi is new to the position and new to play-calling. Lupoi will pull the strings to get pressure on Jawon Pass while not over-extending the new Tide secondary.
Alabama football fans can expect some hiccups from Locksley and Lupoi. They will need time and Nick Saban’s tutelage, even if that includes several tongue-lashings.
What to expect from VanGorder? Start with Louisville being unable to shut down the Tide rushing attack.
One more unknown
New Crimson Tide punter, Skyler DeLong may perform well in 2018. Expecting him to be the weapon J.K. Scott was is unrealistic. Any inconsistency from DeLong may mean the Tide’s recent history of field position advantage exited with Scott.
Instead of matching Scott’s booming punts, DeLong will need to concentrate on handling snaps cleanly and avoiding shanked punts.
Alabama football fans can hope that in 2018 returning punts will become a stronger weapon. Trevon Diggs and freshman, Jaylen Waddle have reportedly looked very good during fall camp.
Had we chosen to expand on the unknowns theme, there are others to consider. Tide depth on the defensive line and linebacker are two more unknowns. And of course, who, how and why can be asked about the use of the Tide quarterbacks.