Alabama Football: After Ole Miss, no need to pump the brakes

Alabama football fans are loving the Tide’s offensive firepower and the defense is coming along nicely. There is no reason to pump the brakes on enthusiasm.

Always a confident lot, Alabama football fans are awed by the Crimson Tide offense. Comparing a current season to historical numbers can be a tad confusing. College football seasons now include more games than the historical average. Defining a season’s trend probably needs a sample of at least six games.

Three games into the 2018 season, game average comparisons begin to have some value. Could the 2018 Crimson Tide offense set team records? The early indication is yes. Stiffer defenses are coming during the season and a Tua injury could change the trajectory.

Nick Saban would call such conjecture nothing more than rat poison. As Alabama football fans, we can call it fun.

Based on FBS Stats through week three, Alabama football will face five future teams currently in the Top 25 defenses in points allowed. Those five are Mississippi State (6), LSU (13), Tennessee (tie 18), Texas A&M (tie 21) and Auburn ( tie 24). For reference, Alabama football is No. 8 for the same stat.

Considering the opponents played, the LSU defense appears to be the best. The three opponents the Tide has beaten are ranked by the same stat: Louisville (tie 72), Arkansas State (101) and Ole Miss (125) is close to dead last in the FBS.

Four Record-Breaking Alabama Football Offensive Trends

More accurately, these should be called ‘potentially’ record-breaking. Source: Alabama Football Record Book

Crimson Tide Total Offense Record – Highest Average Gain Per Play

• 2013 – 7.1 yards-per-play
• 2018 – 7.7 yards-per-play

Crimson Tide Total Offense Record – Most Yards Gained Per Game

• 2014 – 484.5 yards-per-game
• 2018 – 544.7 yards-per-game

Crimson Tide Passing Offense Record – Most Yards Per Game

• 2014 – 277.9 yards-per-game
• 2018 – 308 yards-per-game

Crimson Tide Scoring Record – Most Points Scored per Game

• 1945 – 43 points-per-game
• 2018 – 56.7 points per game

The first thought in the minds of fans is the 2018 averages must come down against tougher opponents. As we referenced above, there are five tougher opponents ahead in the regular season. Add three more in potential post-season foes. The Crimson Tide offensive firepower is not likely to be quite so explosive in those eight games.

The greatest risks to not setting new offensive records are not future tough opponents. A greater risk is Nick Saban’s charitable soul. Nick does not care for embarrassing other coaches and players. Immediate thoughts after Ole Miss were the Tide could have easily scored 80 points. After more consideration, that number had the potential to be closer to 100.

Nick Saban will never let such bloodletting occur. Beyond not shaming other teams, Saban also wants to get game experience for as many players as possible. He wants key backups, like Jalen Hurts, to get meaningful snaps. Plus, with the risk of injury, why play Tua anymore than is necessary?

Against Arkansas, Louisiana – Lafayette and The Citadel, Crimson Tide second unit offenses could run up big numbers. Saban wants the backups to compete and play hard. But he does not allow them the full menu of offensive options in mop-up work.

Will Alabama football set new team offensive records in 2018? It appears the answer lies in Tua’s health and how much Saban will allow him to spin his magic.

How much better are the Aggies than the Tide’s three previous opponents? Better for sure, and all week long Bama Hammer will assess just how good is Jimbo’s team.