Memories die hard. For Dabo Swinney, forgetting the performance of Kelly Bryant against a not Tua Tagovailoa led Alabama team in the Playoffs isn’t possible.
Why did Dabo Swinney willingly risk losing Kelly Bryant to transfer? Answers are best served by some context. Choosing true freshman, Trevor Lawrence over Bryant has several reasons, including one big one, Tua Tagovailoa.
First, the ACC isn’t great this year. Powerhouses like Florida State, Louisville, Miami, and Virginia Tech have already suffered embarrassing losses. For Clemson, it is more likely they will stumble, or dare say experience a “clemsoning” against a lesser prominent opponent like they did last year against Syracuse than suffer a loss against any of the previously mentioned.
The only ranked opponent on their remaining schedule is Duke who currently is ranked No. 22. ESPN’s football power index has Clemson favored heavily in every game for the remainder of the season. The lowest chance of winning Clemson has currently, is at Boston College which sits at 81.8 percent. So, it would be an understatement to say that regardless if Kelly Bryant or Trevor Lawrence was starting, neither would struggle to win out.
However, this is where it gets interesting. If both have the ability to win every game on the remaining schedule, why make the change now? Believing it is because of how well Lawrence played thus far against weaker competition is implausible. What is more likely is the scenario that follows.
Last year Clemson snapped the U’s chain in the ACC Championship 38-3. Kelly Bryant didn’t even play in the fourth quarter. The next game Clemson did not score a touchdown and was decisively handled by Alabama 24-6. The frustration with his quarterback was clear on Dabo’s face throughout the game. The noise began at that moment for their top recruit in Lawrence to take over the reigns.
Fast forward to this season. Clemson sticks with Kelly Bryant as the starter. Dabo does split time between Bryant and Lawrence in games, but what is interesting is that in the toughest game yet for Clemson at Texas A&M, Dabo pumps the brakes on Lawrence. Lawrence comes in and his first pass is a 64-yard touchdown pass. But Lawrence’s next two drives are both punts (five plays for 19 yards and three plays for six yards). Lawrence sees the field only one time in the second half which resulted in three plays for eight yards ultimately leading to a punt. Kelly Bryant re-enters the game and makes consecutive touchdown drives that ultimately was the difference in Clemson escaping with a win. From the looks, it appeared that when Clemson needed to rely on a QB for the win, they turned to Kelly Bryant.
So what changed? The Texas A&M team that Clemson only beat by two points was absolutely handled by Alabama 45-23 last week. All at the hands of the QB who had no part in the drumming of the nearly identical Clemson team the year prior in the Sugar Bowl.
In Dabo’s mind, the remaining schedule during the regular season isn’t what worries him. For Dabo, I believe he has to think who gives me the best shot to compete against Tua Tagovailoa. Who gives Clemson the best shot to put up points to compete against Alabama? Trevor Lawrence.
Could Dabo Swinney have played a Nick Saban and waited until Kelly Bryant stumbled against the Tide to throw Trevor Lawrence in the fire? Possibly, however, I think Dabo instead of waiting till the second half of a championship to make a change; Dabo decided Trevor Lawrence must get ready now. He needs Lawrence to be tested in each and every game and get every meaningful snap he can get. Why? Because the talent in the ACC isn’t there this year and the first chance that Lawrence may have to face a formidable team is in the playoffs. Lawrence struggled after his first pass against Texas A&M. Dabo cannot risk having him struggle again in a playoff/national championship game where the stakes are much higher.
Tua Tagovailoa has made the Alabama Crimson Tide into a very different opponent from years past. The ability to put up record amounts of points and at the same time possess one of the nation’s best defenses is staggering to comprehend. For Dabo, he has seen Alabama three consecutive times before. He understands that if he sees Alabama for a fourth straight time, he must possess a QB that is ready to challenge the scoring ability of Tua Tagovailoa.
Make sure to check in with Bama Hammer on Mon. Oct.1. The staff will reveal its first ranking of the top eight teams for the CFB Playoff.