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Alabama Football: Crimson Tide analytics compared to other top teams

By Ronald Evans

TUSCALOOSA, AL - NOVEMBER 07: Fans of the Alabama Crimson Tide cheer against the Louisiana State University Tigers at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 7, 2009 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
TUSCALOOSA, AL - NOVEMBER 07: Fans of the Alabama Crimson Tide cheer against the Louisiana State University Tigers at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 7, 2009 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /
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Eye-ball tests show Alabama football is the nation’s top team. Let’s review some analytics of the top teams for another comparison.

Alabama football fans are generally content our eye-ball tests prove the Crimson Tide is the nation’s top team. Yet, we must admit the competition so far in 2018 has not been championship caliber. Most of us are expecting Alabama football will not face a true test until November. Until then any credible source comparing the top teams warrants attention.

Rankings can be a guide through the traditional polls until the Selection Committee releases its first ranking on Oct. 30. In the interim, college football analytics offers additional insight. Analytics and college football can be treacherous in terms of predicting outcomes. The inherent problem is small sample sizes. Even a dozen weeks into a college football season, sample sizes are small.

Stopping short of predictions, but comparing data points of top teams has merit. The data points chosen for this comparison are Team Efficiencies calculated by ESPN.

ESPN defines efficiency analytics as,

"Team efficiencies are based on the point contributions of each unit to the team’s scoring margin, on a per-play basis. The values are adjusted for strength of schedule and down-weighted for “garbage time” (based on win probability). The scale goes from 0 to 100."

The lists below compare eight teams the Bama Hammer staff chose as the Top Eight Teams after week five. The eight chosen are not the top eight ranked by ESPN in every category. The number in parentheses after the rating below is the ESPN ranking, by category, among all 130 FBS teams.

Overall Team Efficiency Rating

  1. Alabama – 98.7 (1)
  2. Georgia – 95.8 (2)
  3. Ohio State – 90.7 (3)
  4. West Virginia – 88.8 (4)
  5. Oklahoma – 87.0 (5)
  6. LSU – 84.6 (10)
  7. Clemson 82.6 (11)
  8. Notre Dame – 78.2 (16)

The Overall Team Efficiency is made up of three efficiency data points: Offense; Defense and Special Teams. The next three lists again include eight teams ranked by the Bama Hammer staff.

Offense Efficiency

  1. Alabama – 97.4 (1)
  2.  Oklahoma – 96.5 (2)
  3. West Virginia – 89.1 (4)
  4. Ohio State – 88.3 (5)
  5. Georgia – 85.3 (7)
  6. LSU 74.6  (14)
  7. Notre Dame – 67 (31)
  8. Clemson – 65.7 (33)

Defense Efficiency

  1. Georgia – 93.8 (1)
  2. Alabama – 93.4 (2)
  3. Clemson 89.8 (3)
  4. LSU – 81 (13)
  5. Ohio State – 79.1 (13)
  6. Notre Dame – 78.1 (19)
  7. West Virginia – 77.1 (20)
  8. Oklahoma – 51.3 (73)

Special Teams Efficiency

  1. Oklahoma – 77.5 (10)
  2. Georgia – 74.7 (14)
  3. Alabama – 67.1 (24)
  4. Ohio State – 65.3 (26)
  5. LSU – 64.1 (30)
  6. Notre Dame – 52.7 (64)
  7. West Virginia – 39.5 (100)
  8. Clemson – 38.2 (101)

Alabama football fans need to remember the efficiencies are driven by points produced. So for the Crimson Tide, a punt return TD and a kick return TD compensate for field goal and extra point misses.

Next. Why Tua will not win the Heisman in 2018.. dark

What do the multiple data points tell us? In our opinion, the value is not in predicting future outcomes but in understanding the relative strengths and weaknesses of the top teams.

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