There has been enough Iron Bowl history for Alabama football fans to never consider the game a lock but this year there is little reason to worry. Check out four reasons why.
Will Alabama football cover the big spread in Saturday’s Iron Bowl? Maybe, maybe not, but the Crimson Tide will win because it is a much better football team. Even perhaps injury-weakened on the offensive line and with its iffy place-kicking, the Alabama Crimson Tide is superior.
Auburn has plenty of talent and competent coaches. For the Aubies, the Iron Bowl will again be the season-defining game of its season. While doing so may harm the Tigers more than help, Gus will pull out all his gadget plays.
Alabama football will prevail. In the end, not enough of anything by Auburn will be effective enough to finish within two touchdowns of the Crimson Tide.
We count down the reasons why in least to greatest impact.
N0. 4 – Auburn Offensive Line
Comparing the trenches, statistically, Alabama football is better but not vastly better in sacking opposing QBs. The Crimson Tide is No. 7 in the FBS and Auburn is No. 13. The gap comes when seeing which team best protects its QB. The Tide is No. 9 in sacks allowed while Auburn is tied for No. 45. Quick slants and screens can help the Tigers diminish the Tide rush but Stidham will not get as much time as Tua when trying to throw deep.
No. 3 – Auburn Pass Defense
The Tigers are not as weak in the secondary as some Tide fans suspect. Still, with Auburn’s ability to rush the passer, the Auburn DBs should have better stats. A good example is the LSU game. The Bengal Tigers are No. 89 in Passing Offense in the FBS and No. 95 in Team Passing Efficiency. LSU’s Joe Burrow was 15-for-34 against Auburn for 249 yards. Even worse for the Tigers, Tennessee passed for 328 yards in its victory over Auburn. Joe Burrow and Jarrett Guarantano are not as good as Tua.
No. 2 – Auburn Rush Defense
As expected the Georgia Bulldogs had no problem running the football against Auburn. More telling about the Tigers defense is what happened against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs rushed for 349 yards on the Tigers, at a 6.1 yards-per-carry (ypc) average that came close to matching the UGA average of 6.6 ypc.
No. 1 – The Gus Factor
Remember when Gus was renowned for being an offensive genius? More recently many Auburn fans want the play-call sheets ripped out of Gus’ hands and available only to OC, Chip Lindsey. How bad is it in Auburn? In the last couple of weeks, Auburn AD Allen Greene saw fit to issue a vote of confidence in Gus. Malzahn, though buttressed by a $32 million buyout, followed the ‘dreaded vote of confidence’ with a statement he would definitely be the Auburn coach in 2019.
The problem is Gus being a vastly overrated, gimmicky, high school mentality coach whose main talent was stretching offensive rules. Now that defenses get to sub whenever he does and at least sometimes, offensive linemen downfield on pass plays get flagged, Gus’ gimmicks are less effective.
The proof is Malzahn’s road record in Tuscaloosa, Athens and Baton Rouge. In Gus’ Auburn head coach tenure, going back to 2013, his teams are 0-8 in those toughest road games.
In the early evening hours of a west Alabama Saturday night, that record will become 0-9. Hopefully, that will not trigger a massive buyout from the apparently limitless Auburn war chest.