Alabama Football: Iron Bowl analysis by comparing common opponents

In just a couple of days, the nastiest rivalry in the Southland will pit Alabama football against those Barners from the Ugliest Little Village on the Plains. In 2018, the two teams have six common opponents. We’re going to compare and contrast the statistical analysis of those games.

The folks at Bama Hammer will be giving their official game predictions for the Iron Bowl on Friday, but I just want it to be clear that I think Alabama football’s going to win on Saturday. I think most of us believe this will happen. The following article is just a primer of sorts to show you how both teams performed against a couple of the common opponents they played and to see if we can glean a mathematical reason why the Tide will emerge victorious against the Tigers this weekend.

With all the buzz surrounding the strength of the Auburn defense, check out the comparative defense stats I bolded from the Ole Miss and Mississippi State games.

Ole Miss

Alabama smacked the Rebs in an early season matchup 62-7. Auburn gained a much-needed victory later in the season, winning 31-16.

Alabama

• Offense: 306 passing yards, 210 rushing, 516 total, 27 first downs, 6-13 on 3rd down, 1-1 on 4th, two turnovers, allowed one sack
• Defense: 133 passing yards, 115 rushing, 248 total, 9 first downs allowed, 4-16 on 3rd down, 0-1 on 4th, three turnovers, four sacks

Auburn

• Offense: 215 passing yards, 269 rushing, 484 total, 20 first downs, 7-14 on 3rd down, 1-2 on 4th, zero turnovers, allowed one sack
• Defense: 324 passing yards 123 rushing, 447 total, 27 first downs allowed, 6-17 on 3rd down, 1-3 on 4th, zero turnovers, six sacks

Arkansas

Both teams won their games handily, although one’s defense struggled much more against a largely anemic Razorback offense than the other. Alabama won its game 65-31 and Auburn won 34-3.

Alabama

• Offense: 393 passing yards, 246 rushing, 639 total, 24 first downs, 3-6 on 3rd down, 1-2 on 4th, zero turnovers, zero sacks allowed
• Defense: 233 passing yards, 172 rushing, 405 total, 22 first downs allowed, 6-12 on 3rd down, 0-1 on fourth, three turnovers, one sack

Auburn

• Offense: 134 passing yards, 91 rushing, 225 total, 13 first downs, 4-13 on 3rd down, 0-1 on 4th, zero turnovers, four sacks allowed
• Defense: 141 passing yards, 149 rushing, 290 total, 13 first downs allowed, 3-17 on 3rd down, 1-2 on 4th, two turnovers, two sacks

Mississippi State

Both teams’ offenses were stymied by State’s stout defense, but only one of them was able to hold the Bulldog offense in check. Alabama won 24-0, while the Tigers lost 23-9.

Alabama

• Offense: 163 passing yards, 142 rushing, 305 total, 23 first downs, 4-12 on 3rd down, 0-1 on 4th, two turnovers, allowed four sacks
• Defense: 125 passing yards, 44 rushing, 169 total yards, 6 first downs allowed, 1-13 on 3rd down, 0-2 on 4th, one turnover, five sacks

Auburn

• Offense: 214 passing yards, 90 rushing, 304 total, 14 first downs, 3-14 on 3rd down, 1-3 on fourth, two turnovers, allowed three sacks
• Defense: 69 passing yards, 349 rushing, 418 total yards, 22 first downs allowed, 7-17 on 3rd down, 1-2 on 4th, one turnover, zero sacks

All Told

Will skip ahead as you know, at the very least, that Alabama football won the other three games and Auburn lost two more of theirs. Suffice it to say, the Tide had a combined +2 turnover margin in those three games while Auburn had -2. Were it not for the three turnovers they caused against A&M, they’d probably be 6-5 right now. Across all six games, here are the averages for both teams.

Alabama (+5 turnover margin)

• Offense: 316.5 passing yards per game, 169.3 rushing, 485.8 total, 26.2 first downs per game, 46 percent on 3rd down, 57 percent on 4th, one sack per game allowed, 47.2 points per game
• Defense: 194.2 passing yards per game, 84 rushing, 278.2 total, 14.2 first downs per game allowed, 27 percent on 3rd down, 20 percent on 4th, 4.2 sacks per game, 13.6 points per game allowed

Auburn (-1 turnover margin)

• Offense: 223.6 passing yards per game, 120.8 rushing, 344.4 total, 16.8 first downs per game, 38 percent on 3rd down, 33 percent on 4th, 2.3 sacks per game allowed, 24.5 points per game
• Defense: 221.8 passing yards per game, 168.8 rushing, 390.6 total, 21.2 first downs per game allowed, 37 percent on 3rd down, 40 percent on 4th, 3 sacks per game, 19.6 points per game

In Conclusion

While Alabama football won these games by an average of 47-13, Auburn won half of its games by a margin of 24-19. I understand it’s a rivalry game and stranger things have happened, but you attach the revenge factor (regardless of ‘Bama’s title) and the game being in Tuscaloosa?

As Bama Hammer expert Ron Evans said, “Maybe there’s a reason the spread’s so high.” You’re damn right, the spread is high!