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Alabama Football: Dawgs are good but not as good as last season

By Ronald Evans

ATLANTA, GA - JANUARY 08: A general view of the stadium as the Alabama Crimson Tide celebrates beating the Georgia Bulldogs in overtime and winning the CFP National Championship presented by AT
ATLANTA, GA - JANUARY 08: A general view of the stadium as the Alabama Crimson Tide celebrates beating the Georgia Bulldogs in overtime and winning the CFP National Championship presented by AT /
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The reason Alabama football is almost a two-touchdown favorite over Georgia for the SEC Championship is the Bulldogs are not as good as last season.

Over-simplifying can sometimes lead to faulty conclusions. Still, there is a simple and valid way to measure Alabama football and the Georgia Bulldogs. The Alabama Crimson Tide is a better team than last season. Georgia is not.

The above paragraph may qualify as the most egregious example of ‘rat poison’ in the Alabama football, Nick Saban era. The premise the Tide is better and Georgia is not is accurate but too simple. Georgia is a very good football team. Nick Saban is correct in saying the Bulldogs will be the best team the Tide has played in 2018. Georgia at the top of its game and the Tide off of its own game could mean a Bulldogs victory.

The Bulldogs have a strong running game that will be a challenge for the Tide defense. Given enough time, Jake Fromm can make big throws. Placekicker, Rodrigo Blankenship gives the Dawgs a significant advantage and could be the difference in a close game. Kirby Smart has an abundance of speed on offense. The Bulldogs can put up some points, even on a Crimson Tide defense.

The problem for Georgia will be stopping the Alabama football offense. The Bulldogs defense is No. 12 in the FBS but has weaknesses. Georgia is last in the SEC in two defensive categories:  tackles for a loss (No. 118 in FBS) and team sacks (No. 111 in the FBS.) Getting pressure on Tua will require bringing extra defenders, making the good UGA secondary more vulnerable.

The Bulldogs have also not been effective in red zone defense. They are No. 12 in the SEC and No. 108 in the FBS.

If those stats don’t appear conclusive enough, consider the results against common opponents.

  • Wins over Missouri: Alabama by 29 points; Georgia by 14 points
  • Wins over Tennessee: Alabama by 37 points; Georgia by 26 points
  • Wins over Auburn: Alabama by 31 points; Georgia by 17 points
  • Against LSU: Alabama winning by 29 points; Georgia losing by 20 points

Absent a flurry on Tide turnovers, the Bulldogs are not built to take down the Tide this season. That does not mean Alabama football will win easily. The Tide cannot afford another flat first-half like The Citadel and Auburn. The Tide must play well but it can win just being itself. For Georgia, Kirby will have to consider if the Bulldogs will need something extra, maybe a Justin Fields boost of something different. Even that will not help if the Bulldogs defense cannot stop the Crimson Tide.

Next. The Tide and the CFB Playoff. dark

The SEC Championship may or may not be a CFB Playoff, play-in game. After last weekend losses by Playoff contenders, both SEC teams may make the Playoff field.

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