Alabama Football: The last ‘Bama Hammer’ Orange Bowl prediction
By Ronald Evans
‘Bama Hammer’ offers Alabama football fans one last Orange Bowl prediction and a summary of our earlier contributor predictions.
The Alabama football fans, who have been following the earlier game predictions by the Bama Hammer staff, know we are a confident group. That is not unusual. Throughout the season, our game predictions have favored the Crimson Tide almost every time. We picked the wrong winner only twice.
We have unanimity again in our first set of CFB Playoff picks. I will explain my prediction in detail below, but first a summary of the earlier predictions. The range of predicted points by Alabama football was 42 to 59, with the average of the seven predictions at 51.6. The predicted range of points by the Sooners was 21 to 45, with an average of 31 points.
Oddssharrk.com has the predicted score at Alabama football 53 – Oklahoma Sooners 36. Our averaged prediction, Tide 51.6 – Sooners 31, is pretty consistent with the expert pick. If we are wrong, we will have lots of company.
Ronald Evans Game Prediction
The Orange Bowl does not feel like a hard game to predict. A quick stats review shows the teams are comparable in offensive firepower, though with the asterisk the Sooners have run up numbers against more suspect defenses. The defenses are not comparable. Nick Saban’s Alabama football defense is far superior to something the Sooners call a defense.
The Sooners will score. They will play confidently. Lincoln Riley will have a superb offensive plan, filled with tempo, motion, misdirection and run by talented athletes. The biggest problem for Riley is Nick Saban and the excellent Alabama football staff have had a month to prepare. The next biggest problem for the Sooners is despite having lots of talented athletes, the Crimson Tide has more.
Assuming Tua is near 100 percent (and we expect he is), two things have to happen for the Tide to lose. Tua will have to get hurt again and the Sooners will have to win turnovers decisively. Otherwise, the Tide wins, and if Tua is near 100 percent and can go for four quarters as needed, my predicted spread is too small. Tua and the rest of the Tide could torch the Sooners defense for 60 points.
For those of you in need of some brake-pumping – yes the Sooners field goal kicker is more consistent than Joe Bulovas. Yes the OU punter has a slightly stronger leg than Mike Bernier. But the kicking game will not be the deciding factor in the outcome.
Personally, I hope the game has more than a handful of defensive stops. The 2018 Crimson Tide is built to win shootouts, but too often high-scoring games cam come down to fluke plays and luck. Do I think the Tide gameplan should be balanced for the purpose of consuming clock? Not to the point where methodical reduces the number of explosive plays. My plan would be score early and often – but remind Tua to never hold on to the ball too long.
I think we will see Tua and Jalen both in the game several times. If Tua goes down, can the Tide win with Jalen at QB? I think so but I don’t want to have the premise tested.
Ronald Evans Game Prediction: Alabama 52 – Oklahoma 38
Check out all the earlier predictions by the Bama Hammer staff.
Lauri Springer Game Prediction
Jonathan Waldrop Game Prediction
Next. Tua will be best QB Saturday and any game. dark
Let us hear from you about our picks or share your own on Twitter. Especially chime in, any of you expecting a tight game.