Alabama Football: A deep dive into Clemson stats is illuminating

Alabama football and Clemson are the two best teams but a deep dive into Clemson stats shows the Tigers could be a bit over-rated.

Alabama football fans, this is not a predictions post. Bama Hammer will have several game predictions over the next few days. Instead, this post asks if Clemson might be a tad over-rated. We are not saying Dabo’s team is not the nation’s second-best team. And we are not saying they are incapable of beating the Alabama Crimson Tide.

But, Clemson’s schedule was weak. The computers rated it as less weak after playing Notre Dame. That too is misleading. The Fighting Irish were probably the most over-rated team in the FBS. Notre Dame was a good but not great team. The Irish (again) did not have the speed to contend for a national championship.

Even with the false UND bump, Clemson had only the No. 45 schedule in the FBS, according to Jeff Sagarin. That puts Clemson at about the same level of competition as Washington State, Iowa, Minnesota, Baylor, USC and Cal.

We don’t know Sagarin’s algorithm or that is any better than the suspect ESPN FPI. It is, however, a useful tool allowing us to consider whether Clemson would have been undefeated against a tougher schedule.

The best team Clemson has beaten is Notre Dame. The Irish are not a Top 5 team and maybe not a Top 10 team. Otherwise, Clemson did not play any top teams. The next best Clemson win was over 10-3 Syracuse. Beyond that, the Tigers best wins were over four-loss, NCSU and TAMU, five-loss Boston College and six-loss South Carolina. That is far from an impressive resume.

So, when looking at Clemson’s team stats, it is reasonable to argue those stats are inflated by mediocre or weak competition. We don’t have an algorithm to use, so our best guess will have to suffice. We suggest the Clemson schedule caused its team stats to be inflated by 15 percent. Make that 15 percent adjustment and Clemson’s No. 3 ranked Total Offense drops to No. 28.

Make the same adjustment and the Clemson No. 4 Scoring Offense drops to No. 15. The No. 2 ranked Total Defense drops to No. 16. The No. 16 ranked Passing Yards Allowed drops to No. 47.

Are we just having fun with numbers with no purpose beyond feeding Alabama football optimism? If we are, it is not intentional. We think our ‘weak schedule, inflated team stats’ contention is valid. The 15 percent adjustment value might be too high but some percentage of adjustment is appropriate. The Clemson Tigers are, at least, not quite as good as the NCAA Stats indicate.

Another subjective way to assess the relative strength of the two teams is to consider last season. Which team has improved the most since last year’s Sugar Bowl? We will find out on Monday.