Alabama football handled a better defense than Clemson, Mississippi State

The best indication of Clemson’s chances to slow the Alabama football offense is the Crimson Tide game against a better defense, Mississippi State.

Alabama football has plenty of offense to beat Clemson. Not that the Clemson defense is not good. It is very good, one of the best in the nation. The reason Alabama football fans should feel good about Monday night is the November, Crimson Tide game against Mississippi State.

Mississippi State has a better defense than Clemson. That is not a typo or a moment of insanity. Check the NCAA Stats. Clemson and Mississippi State take turns being either No. 1 or No. 2 in the FBS for Total Defense and Scoring Defense. Dive deeper into those stats and see the Bulldogs are also much better than Clemson in Passing Efficiency Defense.

The Bulldogs arguably have the better of the two defenses because the Mississippi State stats were achieved against a tougher schedule.

Not everyone agrees with computer algorithms, but we think they are pretty accurate in measuring schedule strength. One of the most experienced sports algorithm experts is Jeff Sagarin and his numbers rate the Mississippi State schedule at No. 10 for toughest, compared to Clemson at No. 45.

The Bama Hammer staff had several conversations while we worked on our National Championship Game Predictions. We are lucky to have on our team, Kevin Mudd who was a walk-on quarterback at Air Force and later coached at the junior college level. Most of wondered if Clemson’s defense could do to the Tide what Mississippi State did in November.

Kevin educated us the Crimson Tide was as much responsible in stopping itself as were the Bulldogs. It is hard to find fault in Kevin’s argument, summarized below.

• UA first quarter, first drive result – touchdown 7-0.
• UA first quarter, second drive result – touchdown 14-0
• UA third drive, stopped after a run play called on 3rd-and-7
• UA fourth drive, stopped by turnover when Tua tried to pull the ball back from Damien Harris on a RPO
• UA fifth drive, stopped by 3-and-out after first down run stuffed, second down pass tipped and third-down pass play, sack
• UA sixth drive – touchdown, 21-0 at halftime

The first half summary almost writes itself. Six drives, three touchdowns, one drive ended by a turnover and another drive ended by questionable play call. Only one drive out of six did the great Mississippi State defense actually shut down the Alabama football offense. Why does anyone think the Clemson defense will do any better?

Those who disagree with Kevin and the premise of this post may point to the second half of the Mississippi State game. Alabama football managed only three, second-half points. Tua threw a pick after a misread of the defense. He also left the game in the third quarter with a thigh injury.

The fourth quarter against Mississippi State, Alabama football was focused on draining the clock rather than scoring points it did not need. Kevin estimates with a healthy Tua and needing to continue scoring, the Tide would have scored at least five touchdowns against Mississippi State.

Even if we agree the Bulldogs and Clemson are equal as the best defenses in college football – and we don’t – the Crimson Tide should score five or more touchdowns on Monday night.

But what about turnover and injuries? Let’s all follow Nick Saban’s lead and not worry about what we cannot control.