Alabama Basketball: Avery learns, we hope and Tide alive in NCAA Bubble

Has Avery Johnson come out of a long learning curve as Alabama basketball battles the Bubble Zone again while Tide fans watch and wonder?

Avery Johnson may or may not have learned something from the Vanderbilt win. Only eight members of the Alabama basketball squad played against the Dores. One of those players, Daniel Giddens was used for only six minutes. Four of the eight, Hall, Lewis, Petty and Ingram played more than 30 minutes.

It was a big deviation from the normal substitution pattern used by Avery; one that resembled a continually revolving door regularly switching 11 or 12 players. Avery gave somewhat conflicting responses to post-game questions about the change. He said it was dictated by the flow of the game. He also said it was something he and the staff discussed trying in advance.

Would a repeat substitution pattern work in the coming games? Our belief is yes. Is Avery committed to using it? We have no idea. An encouraging note from Avery’s Monday press responses is he has shortened practices considerably. That might indicate a desire to keep fresher legs for a smaller rotation. He specifically said it should benefit 17-year old Kira Lewis Jr.

There are downsides to using fewer players. Although we believe the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, players are more prone to fatigue late in halves, particularly in the second half. Maybe the team tired against Vandy, leading to the Dores comeback and a seven-point win after the Tide led by 23.

Any rush to enthusiasm over the change Saturday and the results needs to be tempered. Vandy is the SEC’s worst team this season and perhaps the worst for many seasons.

We will provide a full update on Tuesday but Alabama basketball is currently either solidly or shakily in the NCAA Bubble Zone, depending whose projection you follow. The latest NCAA NET Ranking (after the games of Feb. 24) has the Tide at 53, a slight uptick from 55.

A good breakdown by al.com shows the SEC with seven solid NCAA teams. Ole Miss is the only one of the seven who could become shaky. Based on Christopher Smith’s SEC Power Rankings, an eighth NCAA bid for the SEC comes down to Alabama basketball or South Carolina.

There is no guarantee the conference will have eight teams qualify. Alabama basketball has a much better chance than South Carolina. The NET gap between the two (55 and 81) could narrow with a Gamecocks’ win Tuesday night.

Our take is the Tide cannot just beat South Carolina and Arkansas, plus one win in the SEC Tournament, to make the NCAA field. Some will differ and maybe the Tide could sneak in with a 12-seed, play-in game based on those three wins. But it would make for a nervous Selection Sunday.