Alabama Basketball: Crimson Tide clings to NCAA bid after LSU loss

Alabama basketball is clinging to an NCAA bid and in need of a big win or a string of wins to solidify qualifying for the Big Dance.

Alabama basketball faces a must-win game situation Tuesday against Auburn. The loss to LSU did not destroy the Tide’s NCAA chances but another win against a Quad 1 team is needed. Auburn may be the last opportunity.

Less likely, though still possible, is the Tide surviving losses to LSU and Auburn if it goes on the road and beats Arkansas, followed by two SEC Tournament wins. Beating the Hogs on the road will tougher than the Razorbacks record indicates. In their last two games, they beat Ole Miss and came very close to beating Kentucky in Lexington. Let’s see where Alabama basketball stands in Bracketology projections after the LSU game.

Most fans are content to follow Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm. Both are good, but there are at least several other as credible, and sometimes more credible prognosticators.

A great summary source to follow is Bracketmatrix.com that lists over 100 bracketologists. The most current Matrix has Alabama as an 11-seed and listed in 95 of 102 brackets submitted.

Another interesting source is Teamrankings.com. Based on their S-curve calculation, Alabama basketball chances have moved down from 54.8 percent to a 44 percent chance of an NCAA bid.  That S-curve indicates the Crimson Tide is the second highest No. 12 seed in the currently projected NCAA field.

Two other bracketologists whose recent track record is comparable to Lunardi and Palm have different opinions of the Tide’s chances. Bracketville has the Tide as an 11-seed. The site projects the Tide at the last of the ‘Last Four Byes’ and not included in the ‘Last Four In.’ 1-3-1 Sports has the Crimson Tide as a 12-seed and the first team of the ‘Last Four In.’

Joe Lunardi has Alabama basketball as an 11-seed. According to Lunardi, the Crimson Tide is not in the ‘Last Four In’ but is the last team in the field with a bye. Jerry Palm has the Crimson Tide as an 11-seed. He does not have the Crimson Tide in his ‘Last Four In.’

The Alabama Crimson Tide has a current NCAA Net Ranking of 54 after the loss to LSU.  The top 49 teams in the Net Rankings are not 100 percent locks but they are in strong positions. Teams can make the Big Dance with a NET Ranking in the fifties, possibly even in the sixties. The new rankings format can create some oddities. Penn State lost to the Crimson Tide and has an overall 12-17 record. The Nittany Lions have a Net Ranking of 49.

It is time to start considering NCAA bid stealers. The Mountain West now has two teams solidly in the field after Utah State beat Nevada. The result takes an at-large bid away from some team.

It is now very close to ‘win or go home’ time. Alabama basketball needs two or three more wins. A projected 11 or 12-seed is a precarious position.