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Alabama football: Path to ’19 Playoff tough due to weaker schedule

By Ronald Evans

ATLANTA, GA - DECEMBER 01: Confetti falls after the Alabama Crimson Tide defeated the Georgia Bulldogs 35-28 in the 2018 SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 1, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - DECEMBER 01: Confetti falls after the Alabama Crimson Tide defeated the Georgia Bulldogs 35-28 in the 2018 SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 1, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /
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Alabama football fans don’t want to hear it but the weakness of the ’19 schedule leaves little margin for error in reaching the CFB Playoff.

Based on Vegas odds and a broad stroke analysis on the best 2019 college football teams, Alabama football is one of five teams with the best chances of making next year’s CFB Playoff. The others are Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia and Ohio State.

The rest of the college football world can spare us the teeth-gnashing – fill in the “xxxxxxxx team could upset the CFB world next season.” Maybe there could even be two surprise teams in the next Playoff field. But picking one of the five teams above to win the next CFB National Championship is a much better bet than picking the field.

The problem for Alabama football is it will be perceived to have the weakest schedule of the top five contenders. Numerous college football blowhards, possessors of a media megaphone, will make that contention over and over. Yes, Tim Brando will be one of the loudest and most boring but he will have plenty of company.

The real story is, despite the Crimson Tide opening with Duke in its annual opening showcase game, Clemson (even without playing Duke) will have the weakest schedule. Unfortunately, Alabama football will not be much better.

Using only the regular season and relying on a recent win-total projection from College Football News, we calculated the schedule strength for the top five contenders. The results are highlighted below. The FCS opponents are not included so the average is for 11 games rather than 12. Ohio State does not play a FCS game, so we deleted the Buckeyes’ weakest projected opponent (Rutgers, with 3.5 projected wins.)

  • Clemson – Average projected opponent wins – 6.9. The Tigers have five opponents projected to win seven or more games and no opponent projected to win nine or more games.
  • Alabama – Average projected opponent wins – 7.1. The Crimson Tide have six opponents projected to win seven or more games and one opponent projected to win nine or more games.
  • Oklahoma – Average projected opponent wins – 7.3. The Sooners have eight opponents projected to win seven or more games and one opponent projected to win nine or more games.
  • Ohio State – Average projected opponent wins – 7.7. The Buckeyes have eight opponents projected to win seven or more games and three opponents projected to win nine or more games.
  • Georgia – Average projected opponent wins – 7.8. The Bulldogs have eight opponents projected to win seven or more games and two opponents projected to win nine or more games.

The Alabama football schedule status would get the biggest, post regular season bump by again playing Georgia in the SEC Championship. That potential game also presents the greatest risk. Because of the Crimson Tide’s regular season schedule, losing the SEC Championship game, even with a 12-1 record, might bump the Tide from the CFB Playoff.

Next. What to look for from Sark and the QBs. dark

Based upon the win projection source we cited, LSU will again be the Tide’s toughest foe, with a win total of 9.5 games. Auburn and TAMU are projected as the next toughest, each projected with 8.5 wins.

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