Alabama football opens the 2019 season with Duke. Maybe it is not an opening game sizzler, but the Blue Devils deserve some respect.
Editor’s Note: This is the first in a series of June posts in which Bama Hammer will highlight all the Alabama football opponents for the 2019 season.
Gone are the days when you could write off a game against Duke in football as essentially an automatic win. For much of the program’s history, until David Cutcliffe arrived, scheduling Duke was almost like scheduling another FCS opponent. Not anymore.
Between 1922 (the first year of the program) and 2007 Duke had been to 8 bowl games in 85 years. They notched an unimpressive 3-5 record in those 8 games. When Cutcliffe took over in 2008 the program hadn’t been to a bowl game since 1994 and hadn’t won a bowl game since 1960.
Not even the great Steve Spurrier could manage a bowl win at Duke.
Cutcliffe has now taken Duke to 6 bowl games in 11 seasons and has a 3-3 record in those bowl games. In 11 years Duke has matched its total number of bowl wins from the previous 85 years.
What does this year’s team look like? This year looks to be a rebuilding year for Cutcliffe and Duke. They lost their starting QB, Daniel Jones, to the NFL Draft. He was the first top 10 pick from Duke since 1987.
Losing the starting QB is tough, but it can be overcome. What truly makes this a rebuilding year is the loss of multiple skill position players, especially at the receiver position.
Duke lost its top 4 receivers in terms of yards from 2018. The best returning receiver is actually Junior RB Deon Jackson, who had 253 yards on 26 catches. The next best returning receiver based on yards is Junior TE Noah Gray.
You have to go down to the 7th best receiver last year to find a WR that is returning. Jake Bobo who is a Sophomore this year had 10 catches for 167 yards last year.
That is a lot of inexperienced receivers going up against an improved and experienced Alabama secondary hungry to prove that they are better than they played in the National Championship.
The Alabama football secondary gets Trevon Diggs back, who was playing lockdown defense before his season-ending foot injury. I don’t expect this game to be a real test of how much improved the secondary is but, it could tell us if the secondary is going to be a point of weakness. If Duke receivers are getting open and making big chunk plays, that is a problem.
Look for Duke to try to run the ball with the aforementioned Deon Jackson. Jackson is the best returning offensive skill player for Duke. He led the team in rushing yards, total yards from scrimmage, and TDs last season.
However, don’t underestimate this passing game. Yes, they lost almost all their weapons from last year, but that means there isn’t much tape on the new guys. Including the new projected starter at QB, Redshirt Senior Quentin Harris.
It’s more difficult to prepare to defend someone who you don’t have tape on. I expect Harris, who is a dual-threat QB, to make some big plays early, with his arm and his feet. That is until Nick Saban and new Defensive Coordinator Pete Golding make adjustments.
On the defensive side of the ball, Duke returns 8 starters from a defense that was ranked 46th in the defensive S&P+ rankings. One of the players stepping into a vacancy was injured in 2018 but was a starter in 2017. Essentially, Duke is replacing two people on defense.
Duke struggled with pass rushing last year, and they don’t seem poised to improve much in that area this year. They also struggled to stop the run last year, allowing 209.3 yards per game on 5.0 yards-per-carry. The pass defense was much better, allowing 199.5 yards per game and 55% completion percentage.
They are better in the secondary than along the front seven. Watch for Alabama to come out and play 2009 style Bama football. Najee Harris, Brian Robinson, and incoming freshman Trey Sanders (assuming he is the third guy) are poised to have BIG games on the ground. This core of backs will not be hurting for touches in this game.
As for Tua and the passing game, I don’t expect a ton of fireworks. Probably a more mediocre game as far as yards and TDs for Tua as I expect the running game to dominate.
Look, Duke has improved in recent years, and they are far removed from consistent 11 loss seasons, BUT… This Alabama team is going to come out HUNGRY with everything to prove after the embarrassing loss in the title game last season.
The analysts and national media pundits are starting to talk again about the end of the dynasty. Alabama football will come out in this game and make a statement. This will be one of those games where Tua and the other starters are being pulled before halftime.
When the betting lines start coming out, take Alabama to cover and take the over. After the dust settles in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Alabama football will be an emphatic 1-0 to start the 2019 campaign.