Alabama Football: Risk-Reward of more challenge, less challenge seasons

For Alabama football, more so than any other CFB program, the measure of a season is winning or failing to win, a National Championship.

A question worth pondering by Alabama football fans is how much is enough – challenge that is, not Championships. There are never enough Championships because the next one is always to be won.

Challenge, however, can slide from too little to more than enough. As the only college football program to appear in every iteration of the five CFB Playoffs, the Alabama Crimson Tide is yet to know any season’s schedule and record to be found wanting. In the 2017 season, Alabama football also proved winning a conference championship is a not a firm requirement.

Last season and again this season, much of the nation bemoaned a weaker than usual Alabama football schedule. For still unexplained reasons, Clemson with an even weaker schedule did not receive equal disdain.

Nonetheless, the gauntlet the Crimson Tide faced in the 2018 season was not as challenging as it had been in recent seasons. In 2014, West Virginia, Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, LSU,  Mississippi State, Auburn, and Missouri in the SEC Championship game provided plenty of solid opposition.

In 2015, the solid opponent list includes Wisconsin, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn, and Florida in the SEC Championship game. Since Ole Miss was a second-straight loss for the Tide, including the Rebels is justified. Maybe the Aggies don’t belong on the list. The Vols do, given the 19-14 Tide victory. Bottom line, there was plenty of schedule strength and challenge.

For 2016, the solid opponent group included Ole Miss, Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn. The SEC Championship opponent, Florida did not offer enough fight.

The solid opponents in 2017 included FSU (the team fielded for the opener), Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi State and  Auburn. Thanks to injuries and the Tigers, there was no SEC Championship game for the Crimson Tide.

Last season, the solid opponent list cannot include any regular season team. None of LSU, Mississippi State or Auburn offered much challenge to the Crimson Tide.

The point of this review is not to refute claims the 2019 season is weaker than normal. It is to assess how much regular season (and SEC Championship game) challenge benefits winning a national championship.

No doubt, not facing adequate regular season challenge is not good preparation for the CFB Playoff. Last season, might prove that point except the Crimson Tide did receive two stern challenges before playing Clemson.

In 2014, the Crimson Tide faced a decent West Virginia team and six ranked teams before the CFB Playoff. The tough schedule appeared to be of no benefit against Ohio State.

Before the 2016 CFB PLayoff, the Tide faced six ranked teams in the 2015 regular season. The result was a National Championship.

In the 2016 regular season (and SEC Championship), the Crimson Tide faced eight ranked teams. The result was no National Championship.

Finally, in 2017, the Tide played only three ranked teams before the CFB Playoff. Again, no National Championship.

There is no apparently strong correlation between regular season schedule strength and winning a national championship. What does no doubt matter is winning every game but one, at least as long as the team is in the SEC. It also doesn’t hurt to have an Alabama football, recent, National Championship pedigree.

Let the nation claim the Crimson Tide schedule is so weak, it must go undefeated to make the 2019 CFB Playoff. It does not, it just must only lose a single game and this season which game may matter more than in the past.