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Alabama Football: A Top 10 look shows Tide schedule not so weak

ByRonald Evans|
GLENDALE, AZ - JANUARY 11: The College Football Playoff National Championship Trophy is seen on the field before the 2016 College Football Playoff National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide at University of Phoenix Stadium on January 11, 2016 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, AZ - JANUARY 11: The College Football Playoff National Championship Trophy is seen on the field before the 2016 College Football Playoff National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide at University of Phoenix Stadium on January 11, 2016 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

The critics of the Alabama football schedule need to take a closer look at the schedules of other projected Top Ten teams.

Alabama football is frequently placed under a microscope in search of any flaw or weakness. This preseason the weakness most often discussed is the lack of top competition in Crimson Tide regular season schedule. It is admittedly weaker than some recent years.

What the Tide’s schedule is not, is the weakest among top CFB Playoff contenders. Others are far weaker.

Preseason rankings and any resulting strength of schedule calculations are flawed. Teams will rise and fall in ways even the best prognosticators could ever predict. But since so many voices are heard slamming the Alabama football schedule, we decided to take a closer look.

Our results would be somewhat different based on which preseason ranking we chose to use. Our choice was the Top 25 from Phil Steele. No one does a deeper dive into college football than Steele. His annual season preview is a must read for serious fans.

The tweet below shows Phil’s preseason Top 25.

Each of us could debate the exact position of the 25 teams. Our opinion is Notre Dame, Miami and Nebraska are ranked too high, but we defer to Steele’s expertise. He certainly got the top spot correct.

Instead of comparing all 25 teams, our quick analysis focused on just the Top 10. We reviewed the schedule of the ten teams and how many regular season games each faces against Top 25 and Top 10 teams. We also considered how many of the games identified were true road games. Our simple analysis uncovered a different story from what we have been reading for months.

Who has the weakest schedules among the Top 10

  1. Clemson – The defending national champion has one Top 25 team on its schedule (No. 17 Texas A&M) and that game is at home.
  2. Utah – The Utes play one Top 25 team (No. 16 Washington) on the road.
  3. Oklahoma – The Sooners play three Top 25 teams ( No. 11 Texas, No. 21 Iowa State and No. 14 TCU) and all three games are in Norman, OK.

The three teams above are the only teams in our comparison without any regular season games against a Top 10 opponent.

The next three weakest among the Top 10

  1. Clemson
  2. Utah
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Michigan – The Wolverines play four Top 25 teams, including one Top 10 team (No. 23 Iowa, No. 20 Penn State, No. 13 Michigan State and No. 6 Ohio State.) The only road game is at Penn State.
  5. Alabama – The Crimson Tide also play four Top 25 teams, including one Top 10 team (No. 17 Texas A&M, No. 7 LSU, No. 24 Mississippi State and No. 18 Auburn.) The Tide plays two of those games (TAMU and AU) on the road.
  6. Ohio State – The Buckeyes with a very similar schedule as Alabama football, edge out the Tide on the basis of the highest ranked team played. The Ohio State plays four Top 25 teams, including one Top 10 team (No. 19 Nebraska, No. 13 Michigan State, No. 20 Penn State and No. 3 Michigan.) The Buckeyes play Nebraska and Michigan on the road.

The remaining four teams have more challenge than the six teams above because each of them has two games against a Top 10 opponent.

  1. Clemson
  2. Utah
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Michigan
  5. Alabama
  6. Ohio State
  7. Notre Dame – The Irish play three Top 25 teams with two being Top 10 teams, (No. 4 Georgia, No. 3 Michigan and No. 25 Virginia Tech.) The Georgia and Michigan games are road games for the Irish.
  8. Georgia – The Bulldogs play four Top 25 teams, with two being Top 10 teams (No. 9 Notre Dame, No. 10 Florida, No. 18 Auburn and No 17 Texas A&M.) The Auburn game is on the road.
  9. Florida – The Gators play four Top 25 teams with two being Top 10 teams (No. 15 Miami, No. 18 Auburn, No. 7 LSU and No. 3 Georgia.) Florida has one true road game among the four, at LSU.
  10. LSU – The Bengal Tigers play six Top 25 teams with two being in the Top 10, (No. 11 Texas, No. 10 Florida, No. 24 Mississippi State, No. 18 Auburn, No. 1 Alabama and No. 17 Texas A&M) with Texas, Mississippi State and Alabama as road games.

There it is, Alabama football fans and anyone else with an open mind. Among preseason Top 10 teams, Clemson has the weakest schedule and LSU has the strongest. The Crimson Tide at No. 5 is right in the middle.

It will interesting to repeat this analysis at the end of the regular season. We will try it again in December.

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