Through Week 2 of the Alabama football season my spread predictions have been a total of 10 points off. What do the numbers say about the Week 3 matchup with South Carolina?
Although my prediction for the New Mexico State game was close, I can’t fully take last week as a win. The numbers called for a 60 point Alabama football victory which would have covered the 54 point spread. Unfortunately Alabama did not cover the spread against NMSU. It wasn’t all bad news though as Alabama did put 62 points and won by 52 barely missing out on the cover.
So going into Week 3 my formula is 1-1 against the spread. What do the numbers predict for the South Carolina game?
The last time Alabama visited South Carolina the Gamecocks pulled off the upset. That seems to be the only thing in the news this week in regards to Alabama football. In 2010 the Crimson Tide went to Columbia to face the struggling Gamecocks. Instead of a big win, Stephen Garcia handed the Crimson Tide a huge loss.
However, this is not 2010 and Stephen Garcia is not playing QB. What happened in 2010 has no bearing on this game in 2019. In fact, many of the kids playing in this game Saturday weren’t even on the recruiting radar when that huge upset occurred.
When South Carolina takes the field Saturday they will be starting a true freshman at QB. Freshmen have struggled against Nick Saban defenses historically. You can bet that Nick Saban and Pete Golding have been talking all week about how to best attack the young signal-caller. You will see a steady dose of disguised coverages, exotic blitzes, and stunts designed to confuse and frustrate Hilinsky.
Hilinsky started South Carolina’s game last week against Charleston Southern, but that is hardly a measuring stick for how he will perform against a defense the caliber of Alabama. He has shown promise and even Nick Saban was impressed by what he did in his first start, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to success on the field.
So what will all this mean when the Crimson Tide kicks off in Columbia this Saturday? To be blunt, the numbers don’t really like South Carolina very much. Starting a Freshman QB against not only his first FBS opponent, but against one of the best defenses in the country does not help their case. So, the numbers again heavily favor Alabama to come out with a big victory.
Vegas likes South Carolina to keep it relatively close compared to other teams. Still, the numbers are predicting Alabama to easily cover the 25.5 point spread. I agree with the math this week. I think Alabama will cover that spread, but maybe not quite by the 45 points the numbers suggest.