Alabama Football: The mathematical analysis of Bama vs. Southern Miss
Alabama and Southern Mississippi (Mississippi Southern for the old school fans) have a long and storied past that many of today’s Alabama football fans may not be aware of. Now we will look at this weekend’s matchup by the numbers.
Alabama vs. Southern Miss used to be a near annual occurrence. However, Saturday’s game in Bryant-Denny will be only the second meeting between the two teams since 2005. Alabama football fans will remember that game from 2005 because of one play. Tyrone Prothro’s incredible catch behind the back of a USM defender.
Since the two teams first met in 1947 they have played a total of 43 games with Alabama holding a dominant record of 34-6-2. The mathematicians may be saying, “Wait a second that only adds up to 42 games” and you would be correct. Alabama was forced to vacate the victory from 2005 so it is not included in the official series record.
Southern Miss is typically a solid contender in the Group of 5, but not many people are expecting a competitive game when they hit the field against the Crimson Tide. As is the case with many teams across the country there is a large disparity in the talent level of the players on each team. Don’t expect Southern Miss to just roll over and take the loss like some other teams would. They have proven they have the talent to hang around in games where they are over-matched on paper.
Just last year the Golden Eagles pushed Auburn to the limit in a 24-13 dogfight that saw USM make a run at a comeback in the 4th quarter. They will try to compete with Alabama and I expect they will be solid early in the game. The problem will be the lack of depth they possess compared to Alabama.
I know Alabama football fans all want to see the offense establish the run, but I am not sure that it is going to happen. I want to say it will, but I’ve thought the run would be a major factor in every game up to this point and so far it has not. Look for Alabama to just keep doing what they’ve been doing. Giving the ball to Tua and letting him decide which playmaker he wants to give the ball to on any given play. It’s not like he is lacking for options.
Now, let’s get into the math and predict the spread.
I just hate being wrong. In the first two games of the year my models were within one possession of correctly predicting the spread of the game. Last week though, my string of good picks ran out. I called for a big-time Alabama win of 45 points. It came out to only be a 24 point win.
After that major miss I decided to do an overhaul of my model and tweak a few calculations. For those that don’t know how I do this, I make a model of the projected final score looking at the major stats that contribute to wins in football games. Namely, points scored and points allowed. At the end of the day that is all that matters.
For the first three games this season all of my models were based on stats from last season. Now that we have a solid sample of games in 2019 I am now using the stats for this season. So without further ado, here is my projected final score and spread prediction.
ALABAMA – 52
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI – 14
ALABAMA by 38
My math is coming up with a number that is SPOT ON with the Vegas spread. I can tell you this is a toss-up whether Alabama covers or not. Vegas has the spread at 39 as of this writing. The numbers say Alabama will not cover. With the injuries on defense, I tend to agree with the numbers. I’d take Southern Miss to cover the spread here.