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Alabama Football: CFB Playoff contenders after week four

By Ronald Evans

GLENDALE, AZ - JANUARY 11: The College Football Playoff National Championship Trophy is seen on the field before the 2016 College Football Playoff National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide at University of Phoenix Stadium on January 11, 2016 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, AZ - JANUARY 11: The College Football Playoff National Championship Trophy is seen on the field before the 2016 College Football Playoff National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide at University of Phoenix Stadium on January 11, 2016 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /
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Is it possible Alabama football and two other SEC teams make the CFB Playoff and accelerate the inevitable expansion to an eight-team field?

it is never too early for speculation about the CFB Playoff field. Alabama football fans are always interested, no matter how much of the season remains unplayed.

Could the SEC doom the four-team field this season? The odds are no – but it is not impossible for three SEC teams to make the field. Wait, we are getting ahead of ourselves – there is much to unpack first.

What teams are still in the Playoff hunt?

The SEC list is a long one because any SEC Champion is in. No other conference has the same situation.

  • SEC – Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Missouri and maybe Mississippi State
  • B1G – Ohio State, Wisconsin or maybe another B1G Champion
  • ACC – Clemson
  • Big 12 – The conference Champion
  • Pac 12 – None
  • Others – maybe Notre Dame

The biggest hinge points are whether one-loss Big 12 or B1G champions get in over one-loss SEC teams.

The permutations leading to three SEC teams making the Playoff field are too numerous to define. Nonetheless, three ESPN pickers, Heather Dinich, Sam Khan Jr. and Chris Lowe have three SEC teams in their current Playoff field projection. Of the 14 ESPN pundits publishing a projection,  nine have at least two SEC teams making the Playoff. Two of them do not have the Alabama Crimson Tide in their final four.

Before Alabama football fans explode, realize the ESPN projections are based on week four and NOT how the pundits predict the teams will finish.

For fans more interested in analytics than punditry, Nate Silver’s weekly data is a good source. Nate Silver currently has the Playoff field including Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma. The Clemson Tigers have Silver’s highest probability at 77 percent. Alabama football is next at 46 percent, followed by Ohio State at 42 percent and Oklahoma at 37 percent.

Among the unbeaten teams, Silver’s odds for a team to win out are heavily in favor of Clemson at 52 percent. The Alabama Crimson Tide has a 21 percent chance to win out – followed by Ohio State at 20 percent; Oklahoma at 14 percent; Georgia at 11 percent; Wisconsin at seven percent; LSU at six percent and Auburn at two percent.

About the crazy idea, three SEC teams make the Playoff field – Silver has only six teams with odds above four percent to win the National Championship. Clemson is at 24 percent; Alabama at 17 percent; Ohio State at 12 percent; Georgia at 10 percent; Oklahoma at eight percent and LSU at six percent. Yes, three of the six are SEC teams.

Next. Top 10 Tide linebackers of the last 30 years. dark

Check in with us each week for another discussion of CFB Playoff projections. The first Selection Committee ranking will not be released until Tuesday, Nov. 5.

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