Alabama Football: New and improved statistical look at Bama vs Ole Miss
In recent years, when Alabama football and Ole Miss football face off you can throw the numbers out the window. Or can you?
Historically, Alabama football has dominated the series with Ole Miss. However, Ole Miss has made the series more interesting over the past few seasons including back-to-back upsets in 2014 and 2015. We’ll get to the game, but let’s take a moment and talk about stats in football.
They say that numbers never lie and that is true, but the way we interpret them can be misleading. My intention is to fix that problem by creating a formula that only takes into account the most relevant statistics and ignores all the “extra” stuff that other mainstream models include.
If we are being completely honest there is really only one number that matters when the clock hits zero. That is the number under your team’s name on the scoreboard. Ironically, it is the same number coaches strive to keep their players from paying attention to throughout the entire game.
That is what my formula strives to do. Ignore the extra stuff and only focus on what really matters in a football game. Points on the scoreboard.
The beautiful thing about mathematics is that there are nearly limitless things you can do to a set of numbers to make them say what you are trying to get them to say. I took that to heart when I started this model knowing that if my first formula wasn’t working I could adjust it and make it better by doing different things with the numbers.
Since Week one I’ve made adjustments to the formula every week to make it better and I will continue to do so until I have something that is accurate week in and week out.
The formula has been great at being close to predicting the final spread of the game. In the first four games of 2019 it has been within one possession of the final spread three times. Duke (2 points), NMSU (8 points), and Southern Mississippi (4 points).
However, it has been the opposite when looking at projecting the cover of the Vegas spread. It correctly predicted an Alabama cover against Duke, but it has been three straight weeks of misses. This week I completely started from scratch and built something completely new.
So let’s get into the game.
Ole Miss has made the series more interesting lately, but this year’s team is far from the teams that upset Alabama football twice. The talent level is simply not on the same level as those teams and not in the same atmosphere as Alabama this year.
They may be 2-2 but their best win is probably an 8-point loss to the Cal Bears last week. Kicking off the season with a loss to Memphis is not the way they wanted 2019 to begin. With two losses already and games against Alabama, LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M to go (not to mention the Egg Bowl) the road to bowl eligibility is bleak at best.
Not to look past an opponent, but if Alabama comes out and plays Alabama football the outcome won’t be in doubt on Saturday. Alabama will get to give some more reps to the second guys and get them ready for later in the season when they will be needed.
After four games of looking for the Tide to establish the run game, I’ve just come to accept the fact that this is a pass early and pass often team. That won’t change on Saturday. Crimson Tide receivers have feasted on inferior opponents all season long.
Now they will be facing the #114 ranked pass defense in the country. I don’t need a crystal ball to tell you that Tua and company will have another big game. Doesn’t matter which of the five superstars (Jeudy, Ruggs, Najee, Smith, Waddle) he gives the ball to, they will simply dominate in open space.
The Vegas spread opened at 35 points, but after some quick bets on Alabama to cover the line has moved to 38 points. Here is my prediction for the score and more importantly the spread.
3. 841. 45. 829. Prediction
Take Alabama to cover that 38 point spread. This is the most confident I’ve been in a pick so far this season. Alabama by 42 even feels a little low to me.
Next. What to expect from the Tide vs Ole Miss. dark
I don’t know if Bama can hold the Rebels to three but after the defensive performance last week I have more confidence than I did after South Carolina. Alabama is at home and Ole Miss has an injured QB and is coming off a heartbreaking loss against Cal. I’ll say it again, take Alabama to cover.