Check out the ‘after week six’ look at the teams most likely to join Alabama football in the College Football Playoff field.
Two weeks ago we posed the possibility of Alabama football and two other SEC teams making the CFB Playoff field. Yes, the prospect was fanciful, but we were not the first to suggest such a result was not impossible.
Were it to come to pass, the SEC would doom the future of a four-team field. The idea of such a result was driven by the chance Alabama football, Georgia, LSU and Auburn would end the season with no more than one-loss, inflicted by another member of the four-team group. With Auburn’s Bo Nix throwing three interceptions in the Swamp Saturday, that premise evaporated. Unless, of course, undefeated Florida just replaces Auburn.
Enough for such fancy, let’s soberly consider what teams across college football are still in the Playoff hunt.
What teams are still in the CFB Playoff hunt?
The SEC list is a long one because any SEC Champion is in. No other conference has the same situation.
SEC – Alabama (5-0), LSU (5-0), Georgia, Florida (6-0), Missouri (4-1) and even Auburn (5-1) if it runs the table.
B1G – Ohio State (6-0), Wisconsin (5-0) or maybe a B1G Champion Penn State (5-0)
ACC – Clemson (5-0) and theoretically Wake if it can upset Dabo’s team.
Big 12 – The Conference Champion – Oklahoma is 5-0. Not that it much matters but Baylor is also undefeated.
Pac 12 – Forget this season West Coasters.
Others – maybe Notre Dame (4-1) but the Irish should be disqualified after last season and until they join a conference.
For fans more interested in analytics, Nate Silver’s weekly data is a good source. Nate Silver currently has the Playoff field including Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama and Oklahoma. The Clemson Tigers have Silver’s highest probability at 73 percent. Ohio State is next at 53 percent followed by Alabama football at 46 percent and Oklahoma at 44 percent.
Among the top unbeaten teams, Silver’s odds for a team to win out are heavily in favor of Clemson at 49 percent. Ohio State has a 31 percent chance. The Alabama Crimson Tide has a 22 percent chance to win out, followed by Oklahoma at 20 percent; Georgia at 12 percent; LSU at seven percent and Wisconsin at five percent.
Check in with us each week for another discussion of CFB Playoff projections. The first Selection Committee ranking will not be released until Tuesday, Nov. 5. The Bama Hammer staff will start releasing its ‘Top Eight’ on Oct. 7.