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Alabama Football: CFB Playoff chances could change this weekend

By Ronald Evans

TAMPA, FL - JANUARY 8: The National Championship Trophy sits on display to members of the media during the College Football Playoff National Championship Head Coaches Press Conference on January 8, 2017 at the Tampa Convention Center in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
TAMPA, FL - JANUARY 8: The National Championship Trophy sits on display to members of the media during the College Football Playoff National Championship Head Coaches Press Conference on January 8, 2017 at the Tampa Convention Center in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images) /
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Alabama football needs some help to make the CFB Playoff. Let’s look at the best and worst chances for Playoff shuffling in week 12 of the regular season.

For Alabama football fans, the key word for the next month of college football is change. The Alabama Crimson Tide needs some help to make the CFB Playoff but fortunately, the amount of change needed is within the standard range for November (and first Saturday in December) upsets.

Three of the four teams above the Crimson Tide in the current Selection Committee rankings will have easy Saturdays this week. Rutgers, Ole Miss and Wake Forest will be blown out by Ohio State, LSU and Clemson. Even a potentially, emotionally flat LSU team, playing in Oxford, should win by three touchdowns.

There are five other games Alabama football fans will follow closely. Upsets are highly unlikely in two of the five. Using the current odds from the Action Network, the ESPN FPI and the ESPN Playoff Predictor, the two games are detailed below.

UCLA at UTAH

The Utes are a 21.5 point favorite. The FPI gives Utah an 89 percent chance of winning. The Playoff Predictor gives the Utes only a seven percent chance of making the CFB Playoff field.

ARIZONA at OREGON

The Ducks are a 27.5 point favorite. The FPI gives Mario Cristobal’s team a 96 percent chance to win. The Playoff Predictor has Oregon with a 32 percent chance to make the CFB Playoff field.

Two more games could go either way. One of them is especially important for the Crimson Tide but it puts Alabama football fans in a difficult position.

GEORGIA at AUBURN

The Georgia Bulldogs are a 2.5 point favorite in Jordan-Hare. The FPI gives the Dawgs only a 47 percent chance to win. The Playoff Predictor gives Kirby Smart’s team a 25 percent chance to make the Playoff field. Crimson Tide fans will be conflicted about this key game.

MINNESOTA at IOWA

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a three-point favorite. The FPI gives the Minnesota Golden Gophers only a 39 percent chance to win. The Playoff Predictor has almost no confidence in Minnesota, giving them only a four percent chance to make the CFB Playoff field.

The fifth game’s outcome helps the Crimson Tide regardless of which team wins. But the two teams are not equal in their chances to make the Playoff. For that reason, a win by the home team appears best for the Alabama Crimson Tide.

OKLAHOMA at BAYLOR

These two teams should meet again for the Big 12 Championship. Having the teams split the games helps the Crimson Tide. This Saturday’s home game appears to be Baylor’s best chance to take down the Sooners.

Oklahoma is a 10.5 point favorite. The FPI gives the Sooners a 72 percent chance to win. The Playoff Predictor has Oklahoma with an 11 percent chance to make the Playoff and Baylor with a five percent chance.

Next. Listening to Nick Saban is always a good idea. dark

As far as the Alabama Crimson Tide, the FPI gives Bama an 87 percent chance to beat Mississippi State. The Playoff Predictor has the Tide with a 40 percent chance to make the Playoff.

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